| D-III on D3: Tournament Bracketology, 5/03 |
The teams below won their their conference championships and therefore have clinched a spot in the NCAA Tournament via automatic qualification (AQ): Salisbury (CAC) Dickinson (Centennial) Colorado College (SCAC) Montclair St. (Skyline) Pool C Below, in order, is the current state of Pool C. Several of these teams have played their last games, while others -- most notably Middlebury, Bowdoin, Nazareth, and Trinity -- have a chance to pick up another huge win in their conference semifinals. As such, I have had to look ahead and project the results of every conference championship. Right now, seven teams are battling for the last three Pool C spots. Of course, if a favorite (such as Tufts) is upset in its conference tournament, another Pool C bid will disappear. These seven teams are extremely difficult to separate at the moment, but the picture will become more clear after the conference semifinal games. 1. Stevenson 2. Stevens 3. Amherst (The top 3 teams are in good shape.) 4. Middlebury (Resume is the strongest of the remaining teams, but they really need to beat Trinity in the NESCAC semifinals to feel safe.) 5. Gettysburg (in this spot by a very thin margin) 6. Haverford (in this spot by a very thin margin) 7. Trinity (If Bowdoin appears in Wednesday’s regional rankings, I project they will jump ahead of Haverford with an extra win over a regionally-ranked opponent added to their resume. For now, they sit just outside the final spot.) 8. Nazareth 9. Lynchburg 10. Bowdoin (Will have #1 SOS in Division III by a mile and have already played eight regionally-ranked opponents with a 4-4 record in those contests. If they beat Tufts, they could skyrocket on this list.) 11. Endicott (Starting here, these teams have likely been eliminated from Pool C contention.) 12. Wesleyan 13. Union 14. Hamilton 15. St. John Fisher Pool B - I am comfortable in saying that the Pool B field is set with Wittenberg, Denison, Ohio Wesleyan, and Adrian. In seeding Denison, Ohio Wesleyan, and Wittenberg, I have defaulted to SOS and number of games against regionally-ranked opponents, as they are each 1-1 in head-to-head play. Their resumes are extremely close. Seeding Seeding is a mix of analyzing resumes and matching up teams in geographical “clusters” so that no one will have to fly (campuses within 500 miles). The most difficult decisions below involved Stevenson-Salisbury-Dickinson and the Pool B teams. I see Tufts as the clear #2 seed in the North if they win the NESCAC. Their SOS and results versus regionally-ranked opponents would exceed Cortland’s resume by a significant margin. I have had to shift Colorado College to the North to balance the brackets (13 teams in each). Considering that they will have to fly no matter who they play, they are the most flexible team in the tournament for a shift from one region to another. I also had to drop Haverford behind Denison despite having a superior resume to ensure there would be no 500+ mile matchups. Bracket as of 5/03/11
North #1 RIT (Empire 8 AQ) vs. winner of #8 Skidmore (Liberty AQ) vs. Springfield (Pilgrim AQ) #4 Stevens (Pool C) vs. #13 Castleton (NAC AQ) vs. winner of #5 Amherst (Pool C) vs. #12 Colorado College (SCAC AQ) #3 Cortland (SUNYAC AQ) vs. winner of #6 Middlebury (Pool C) vs. #11 Montclair State (Skyline AQ) #2 Tufts (NESCAC AQ) vs. winner of #7 Western New England (CCC AQ) vs. #10 Keene State (Little East AQ)
South
#1 Stevenson (Pool C) vs. winner of #8 Ohio Wesleyan (Pool B) vs. #9 Wittenberg (Pool B) #4 Roanoke (ODAC AQ) vs. #13 Goucher (Landmark AQ) vs. winner of #5 Gettysburg (Pool C) vs. #12 Adrian (Pool B) #3 Dickinson (Centennial AQ) vs. winner of #6 Denison (Pool B) vs. #11 Cabrini (CSAC AQ) #2 Salisbury (CAC AQ) vs. winner of #7 Haverford (Pool C) vs. #10 Widener (MAC AQ) You can read or participate in the bracketology discussion on the LaxPower Men's D3 Forum. D-III is a long-time contributor to the LaxPower Forum. What appears above is a lightly edited version of his post there. |
