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D1 Bracketology 5/02: Who's in, Who's out?
That gives me 13 teams in at the moment (assuming current league leaders get their respective AQs) and three slots to go for the following bubble teams, which I have listed in the order I believe they currently sit:
North Carolina (#13 RPI, #5 SOS, QWs Maryland (11); Penn (14); Princeton (17)) Without a top 10 RPI win at the moment, the Tar Heels could be in trouble if they lose to ND and a couple of other things go against them (Maryland loses to Colgate, Army beats Hopkins).
Villanova (#8 RPI, #8 SOS, QWs Penn (14); Princeton (17); Penn State (18)) The Wildcats are watching their resume get weaker by the week due to their front-loaded schedule.
Harvard (#20 RPI, #24 SOS, QWs Princeton (17); UMass (19)) The Crimson knock Yale off the bubble and take their place. Harvard's RPI gets them consideration, as no team outside the top 20 has ever gotten an at-large. This means they are competing with Penn State, Loyola, UMass, and Colgate for this slot. Since only Penn State had a top-20 win in that group, Harvard gets the nod over the Nittany Lions based on a second QW.
Penn State (#18 RPI, #17 SOS, QW UMass (19)) The Nittany Lions look like they will need the CAA AQ, since they are thin on QWs.
Loyola (#16 RPI, #35 SOS, QWs - none)) No QWs = no at-large bid. They need to win the ECAC AQ.
Colgate (#15 RPI, #31 SOS, QWs - none) Have a faint heart beat with their season-ending game at Maryland. Even if they win, it might not be enough.
UMass (#19 RPI, #37 SOS, QWs none) No QWs = no at-large bid. They need to win their CAA AQ.
Army (#26 RPI, #19 SOS, QW Cornell (3)) No team outside the RPI top 20 has ever gotten an at-large bid. They need to beat Hopkins and hope that gets them in the RPI top 20. If that happens, the Black Knights will have a chance.
Delaware (#25 RPI, #18 SOS, QW Hofstra (9)) No team outside the RPI top 20 has ever gotten an at-large bid. It looks like the Blue Hens need to win the CAA AQ.
Ohio State (#28 RPI, #7 SOS, QW UNC (13)) No team outside the RPI top 20 has ever gotten an at-large bid. As with others on this list, it looks like the Buckeyes need the ECAC AQ.
Yale (#24 RPI, #36 SOS, QW Princeton (17)) No team outside the RPI top 20 has ever gotten an at-large bid. They need to get to the Ivy final to have a chance without the AQ.
Drexel (#21 RPI, #22 SOS, QWs Penn State (18)) No team outside the RPI top 20 has ever gotten an at-large bid. With no more games to play, it looks like the Dragons will once again miss out on the NCAAs.
Possible Tournament Seeds & Pairings
Right now, the tournament pairings might look like what's below. Remember, after the top 8 seeds, match-ups are dictated by geographic considerations and the two-flight rule.
#1 Syracuse vs. Siena
#2 Notre Dame vs. Harvard (flight)
#3 Duke vs. Villanova
#4 Cornell vs. Stony Brook
#5 Johns Hopkins vs. Hofstra
#6 Maryland vs. Bucknell
#7 Virginia vs. Denver (flight)
#8 Penn vs. North Carolina
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