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Division I Bracketology as of 4/15: Who's in, Who's out?
Front-Runners for League AQs (if tied, RPI is used as the tiebreaker for the projection)
America East Stony Brook (#34 RPI, #38 SOS, QWs none) - This is a one-bid league, and Stony Brook took a huge step toward having home field throughout the conference tournament with their win over UMBC. Albany also stands at 3-0 in league but has a lower RPI.
Big East #8 Notre Dame (#6 RPI, #18 SOS, QWs Duke (7); Denver (15); Ohio State (20)) - The Irish have a higher RPI than Villanova, so they are slotted as the AQ, while Villanova is in the at-large pool. The Big East will settle their AQ with a conference tournament held at Villanova the final weekend of the regular season.
Colonial #5 UMass (#5 RPI, #43 SOS, QWs Penn State (11); Bucknell (18); Towson (19); Ohio State (20)) - Undefeated but not in great shape for a higher seed due to their RPI and lack of top 10 RPI wins at the moment.
ECAC #1 Loyola (#1 RPI, #23 SOS, QWs Duke (7); Fairfield (13); Denver (15); Towson (19); Ohio State (20)) - Every year the committee has given the #1 RPI team the #1 seed. While the Greyhounds lack a top 5 RPI win, it is hard to see them not getting the #1 seed if they win out.
Ivy Cornell (#9 RPI, #37 SOS, QWs Denver (15); Syracuse (16)) - Higher RPI gets the Big Red the AQ slot in this projection over Princeton. A #9 RPI with their best win being #15 Denver means no seed for the Big Red. In fact, if they aren't careful, their resume is starting to look a good deal like Georgetown's in 2010, when they had the #9 RPI but did not get in.
MAAC Siena (#33 RPI, #59 SOS, QWs None) - It's the AQ or bust in this league.
Patriot Colgate (#14 RPI, #28 SOS, QWs - Lehigh (8); Fairfield (13)) - The Red Raiders have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Lehigh for possibly hosting the league tournament. Two bad losses to Dartmouth and Navy could haunt them if they fail to get the AQ and other teams strengthen their resumes.
Looking Good for an At-Large Bid - The following teams look to be in very good shape for at-large bids since each has a top 10 RPI, top 10 SOS, and at least one top 5 RPI win:
#2 Virginia (#3 RPI, #5 SOS, QWs Maryland (4); Cornell (9); UNC (10); Syracuse (16); Ohio State (20)) - #2 based on three top 10 RPI wins with a strong RPI and SOS.
#3 Maryland (#4 RPI; #4 SOS, QWs Johns Hopkins (2); Duke (7); Villanova (12)) - While they have only three top 20 RPI wins, their head-to-head wins over both Hopkins and Duke combined with the RPI/SOS being #4 each makes me think #3 ... unless the committee decides to count the UMBC loss heavily against them.
#4 Johns Hopkins (#2 RPI, #8 SOS, QWs Virginia (3); Syracuse (16); Princeton (17); Towson (19)) - Hard to drop Hopkins much further than #4 with a #2 RPI and the win over UVa. The lack of another big RPI win prevents them from being seeded higher.
#6 Duke (#7 RPI, #2 SOS, QWs Virginia (3); UNC (10); Syracuse (16)) - Two top 10 RPI wins with a better RPI, SOS and a head-to-head win mean the Blue Devils should be seeded above UNC.
#7 North Carolina (#10 RPI, #1 SOS, QWs Johns Hopkins (2); Maryland (4); Penn State (11); Princeton (17)) - They are the only team with two top 5 RPI wins, but they also have the inexplicable loss to a two-win Penn squad. A good showing in the ACC tournament could significantly boost their seeding potential.
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