Division I Bracketology as of 4/15: Who's in, Who's out?


That leaves 4 at-large spots. Here are the teams that are currently in the mix:

Lehigh (#8 RPI, #32 SOS, QWs – UNC (10); Penn State (11); Bucknell (18))
Penn State (#11 RPI, #6 SOS, QWs –Notre Dame (6); Villanova (12); Towson (19); Ohio State (20))
Villanova (#12 RPI, #12 SOS, QWs – Lehigh (8); Syracuse (16); Bucknell (18))

Denver (#15 RPI, #13 SOS, QWs – Penn State (11))
Bucknell (#18 RPI, #17 SOS, QWs – Penn State (11))
Princeton (#17 RPI, #24 SOS, QWs – Villanova (12))
Ohio State (#20 RPI, #7 SOS, QWs - Denver (15))
Syracuse (#16 RPI, #3 SOS, QWs – Princeton (17))

Fairfield (#13 RPI, #33 SOS, QWs – none)
Towson (#19 RPI, #20 SOS, QWs – none)
Robert Morris (#22 RPI, #47 SOS, QWs – Ohio State (20))
Army (#24 RPI; #16 SOS; QWs – Bucknell (18))
St. John's (#23 RPI,#35 SOS, QWs – none)
Bryant (#25 RPI; #50 SOS; QWs – none)

Out of this group, Lehigh, Penn State, and Villanova have resumes that currently stand out due to having at least three top 20 RPI wins, while no one else has more than one.

That leaves one more spot. No team outside the top 20 of the RPI has ever made the tournament, so that eliminates Robert Morris, Army, St. John's, and Bryant. No team without a top 20 RPI win has made it since the change in the criteria, so that knocks out Fairfield and Towson.

That leaves these five for consideration: Denver, Bucknell, Syracuse, Princeton, and Ohio State. It is a tough call, but I am going with Denver as last in at the moment. They have the best RPI win of the group (#11 Penn State) as does Bucknell. They also have the best RPI and do not have any losses to teams outside the top 20 in the RPI. Some clarity should happen over the next few weeks, as each of these teams along with others on the bubble have chances to gain more quality wins.

I freely admit I have been much better at picking who is in and who is out versus actual seedings and match-ups. That said, I am still going to give my best effort at it. Keep in mind that only the top 8 teams are seeded. The commitee has the latitude to make any match-ups they want between unseeded and seeded teams while keeping conference affliations and geography/travel considerations in mind.

Here's my best guess:

#1 Loyola vs. Stony Brook
#2 Virginia vs. Siena
#3 Maryland vs. Denver
#4 Johns Hopkins vs. Villanova
#5 UMass vs. Cornell
#6 Duke vs. Lehigh
#7 UNC vs. Penn State
#8 Notre Dame vs. Colgate

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2012-04-16



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