Division I Bracketology as of 4/22: Who's in, Who's out?


Front-Runners for League AQs (if tied, RPI is used as the tiebreaker for the projection)

America East UMBC (#29 RPI, #36 SOS, QWs Maryland (5)) - UMBC has the best RPI of the three teams currently tied for first in this one-bid league.

Big East #3 Notre Dame (#3 RPI, #17 SOS, QWs Duke (2); Villanova (12); Denver (16); Ohio State (18); Drexel (20)) - A big week for the Irish. Besides clinching the #1 seed in the Big East tournament, their RPI jumped to #3, Duke becomes a top 5 RPI win, and they add Villanova to their list of Top 20 RPI wins.

Colonial #4 UMass (#4 RPI, #42 SOS, QWs Penn State (12); Bucknell (17); Ohio State (18); Drexel (20)) - UMass continues to have seeding issues based on their lack of top-10 RPI wins. The committee set a precedent in 2009 when they seeded an undefeated Notre Dame #7 using the same criteria. I think I am being generous with the #4 seed but believe the bad losses by UNC (Penn) and Maryland (UMBC) will help the Minutemen. If UMass wins out, it will be an interesting case study for future bracketologies to see how they are seeded.

ECAC #1 Loyola (#1 RPI, #18 SOS, QWs Duke (2); Fairfield (11); Denver (16); Ohio State (18)) - With Duke winning the ACC and jumping to #2 in the RPI coupled with the NCAA rewarding the #1 RPI with the #1 seed in past years, it would seem the Greyhounds are the clear #1 seed at the moment.

Ivy Princeton (#14 RPI, #29 SOS, QWs Villanova(12)) The Ivies are looking more and more like a one-bid league. The winner of Princeton-Cornell earns the right to host the Ivy tournament. The loser is going to face an uphill climb to make it in as an at-large team.

MAAC Siena (#33 RPI, #59 SOS, QWs none) - It's AQ or bust in this league.

Patriot Colgate (#10 RPI, #26 SOS, QWs - Lehigh (9); Fairfield (11); Bucknell (17)) All the games between the teams involved in the Patriot tournament were one-goal affairs. Should be a heck of tournament. If the Red Raiders win it, they will have a good shot at a seed. Also, don't forget that the Red Raiders have a season-ending game against Maryland, a team they beat last year to solidify their at-large resume, if things do not go their way in Hamilton this weekend.


Looking Good for an At-Large Bid - The following teams look to be in very good shape for at-large bids since each has a top 10 RPI, top 10 SOS, and at least one top 5 RPI win:

#2 Duke (#2 RPI, #2 SOS, QWs Maryland (5); Virginia (6); UNC x2 (7); Syracuse (19)) Duke is the new Syracuse. The Blue Devils gel as the season progresses and seem to peak at the right time the past few years a la Syracuse in the 90s. Winning the ACC jumps their RPI to #2 and gives them an impressive list of wins to put them in position for the #2 seed.

#5 North Carolina (#7t RPI, #1 SOS, QWs Maryland (5); Virginia (6); Johns Hopkins (7); Penn State (12); Princeton (14)) An impressive list of wins is counterbalanced by a hard-to-explain loss to a two-win Penn squad. Balancing the good with the bad and factoring in a potentially undefeated UMass squad for seeding, #5 seems about right.

#6 Virginia (#6 RPI, #8 SOS, QWs Maryland (5); UNC (7); Cornell (15); Ohio State (18); Syracuse (19); Drexel (20) ) The Cavs are glad the NCAA doesn't care about the timing of your wins, as they have stumbled down the stretch a little.

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2012-04-23



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