Division I Bracketology as of 4/22: Who's in, Who's out?

#7 Maryland (#5 RPI; #5 SOS, QWs Duke (2); Johns Hopkins (7); Villanova (12)) With only three top wins and a bad loss to UMBC, the Terps are flirting with not being seeded again.


That leaves five at-large spots. There are four teams that have resumes that separate them from the rest of the at-large contenders (top 20 RPI with at least three top 20 RPI wins, including one top 10 RPI win):

#8 Lehigh (#9 RPI, #22 SOS, QWs UNC (7); Penn State (12); Bucknell (17)) Every seeded team since 2009 has had a top 10 RPI. In a close call over fellow Patriot League member Colgate and Hopkins, Lehigh looks to have the best case as you look deeper into the criteria no bad losses and the win against Navy while Colgate and Hopkins both lost to the Midshipmen. If either Lehigh or Colgate wins the Patriot tournament, they look to have a good shot at a seed if Hopkins loses to Loyola.

Johns Hopkins (#7t RPI, #13 SOS, QWs Virginia (7); Princeton (14); Syracuse (19)) Not a great weekend for the Blue Jays. They get humbled by Navy, their win over Virginia is no longer a top 5 win with the Cavs loss in the ACC semis, and they lost Towson as a top 20 RPI win with the Tigers going down to Drexel. All these things drop the Blue Jays out of the seeded teams for the moment. A big match-up with Loyola is coming up, and that could solidify their position as a seeded team.

Penn State (#12t RPI, #6 SOS, QWs Notre Dame (3); Villanova (12); Ohio State (18); Drexel (20)) The win over Notre Dame keeps looking better and better for the Nittany Lions. If they can move their RPI into the Top 10, they are definite contenders for a seed with their list of wins and SOS.

Villanova (#12t RPI, #10 SOS, QWs Lehigh (9); Bucknell (17); Syracuse (19); Drexel (20)) With three of their wins toward the back half of the RPI top 20, the Wildcats are in a vulnerable spot. They could lose one or more of these wins in the coming weeks. Also, they could be bumped by a surprise AQ winner that throws a team like Loyola or UMass into the at-large pool.


That leaves the final group of teams competing for the last at-large spot (listed in order of RPI):

Fairfield (#11 RPI, #33 SOS, QWs Denver (16))
Cornell (#15 RPI, #39 SOS, QWs Denver (16); Syracuse(19))
Denver (#16 RPI, #3 SOS, QWs Penn State (12))
Bucknell (#17 RPI, #12 SOS, QWs Penn State (12); Drexel (20))
Ohio State (#18 RPI, #7 SOS, QWs - Denver (16))
Syracuse (#19 RPI, #4 SOS, QWs Princeton (14))
Navy (#21 RPI, #27 SOS, QWs Johns Hopkins (7); Colgate (10))
Georgetown (#22 RPI,#19 SOS, QWs Syracuse (19))
Yale (#23 RPI; #44 SOS; QWs none)
Robert Morris (#25 RPI, #46 SOS, QWs Ohio State (18))

* It should be noted that #20 Drexel and #24 Hofstra were not included due to having sub .500 records.

Since no team outside the top 20 of the RPI has ever made the tournament, that currently eliminates Navy, Georgetown, Yale, and Robert Morris. That said, if Navy's RPI gets into the top 20, they have two impressive wins that could get them in. It will be interesting to see what happens with their numbers as they sit out the next two weeks while everyone else plays. If Navy's RPI was in the Top 20, I would have them as the last team in.

That leaves Fairfield, Cornell, Denver, Bucknell, Ohio State, and Syracuse with Top 20 RPIs competing for the last spot. Denver and Bucknell have the best RPI win of the group (Penn State). Cornell and Bucknell are the only two teams with a second quality win. Looking into the other criteria, nothing stands out to trump the two QWs from any of the other teams. Since Bucknell has the better two quality wins than Cornell, the Bison look to be the last team. That would leave Cornell, Denver, Fairfield, and Syracuse as the first four out.

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2012-04-23



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