D-III on D3: NCAA Tournament Bracketology, April 11th

What a difference a week makes! Roanoke goes from out of the field to #2 seed in the South. Likewise, Endicott was projected as out and now would be set to host a winnable home game in Round 1. A message to all, things change ... fast.

Some thoughts on Pool C and how things break down: Assuming they take care of business and win the games they should, Washington College, Washington & Lee, Middlebury, and Lynchburg are all in relatively good shape. That leaves one spot right now and a lot of teams. Here are the various tiers:

Tier 1 - St. Lawrence, Franklin & Marshall, Connecticut College, Plattsburgh. Right now, all of these teams have an argument and similar resumes. In reality, Plattsburgh will likely drop off this list, because their SOS at season's end will not be on par with the other three teams. Their only hope is that the other three lose games that they should not. It is a complete guess to determine which of the other three (F&M, St. Lawrence, Conn College) is the last team standing at this point. As such, I have included a "Pool C #5" in the bracket where they would logically fit. All three teams could host Montclair State and travel to Cortland without a flight, using the 500-mile rule discussed last week.

Tier 2 - St. Mary's, York, Ursinus. These three teams are on the cusp, but for various reasons (weak SOS, lack of anticipated regionally ranked wins etc.) are on the outside looking in. They need some help to move up the ladder.

Tier 3 - (teams with weak SOS) - Wesleyan, St. John Fisher, Widener. These teams need to improve their schedules if they want to realistically be considered for an at-large bid. We see it every year: a superior win/loss record is not going to get you in the field by itself.

Tier 4 - (teams with too many losses)- Nazareth, Ithaca, Bowdoin, Gettysburg, Clarkson, Western New England. Many of these teams played difficult schedules, but ultimately the losses will pile up and likely keep them out of consideration. Hope is not lost, but it would be an uphill climb.


Bracket as of April 11th


North

#1 Cortland (SUNYAC AQ)
      vs. winner of
#8 Pool C #5 (Pool C) vs. #9 Montclair State (Skyline AQ)

#4 Stevens (Empire 8 AQ) vs. #13 Keuka (Pool B)
      vs. winner of
#5 Middlebury (Pool C) vs. #12 Castleton State (NAC AQ)



#3 Tufts (NESCAC AQ) vs. #14 Norwich (GNAC AQ)
      vs. winner of
#6 Endicott (CCC AQ) vs. #11 Springfield (Pilgrim AQ)

#2 RIT (Liberty AQ)
      vs. winner of
#7 Cabrini** (CSAQ AQ) vs. #10 Keene State (Little East AQ)



South

#1 Dickinson (Centennial AQ)
      vs. winner of
#8 Adrian (MIAA AQ) vs. #9 Aurora (Midwest AQ)

#4 Lynchburg (Pool C) vs. #13 Christopher Newport (Pool B)
      vs. winner of
#5 Salisbury (CAC AQ) vs. #12 Goucher (Landmark AQ)



#3 Stevenson (MAC AQ) vs. #14 Eastern (Pool B)
      vs. winner of
#6 Washington College (Pool C) vs. #11 Colorado College (Pool B)

#2 Roanoke (ODAC AQ) vs. #15 Otterbein (Pool B)
      vs. winner of
#7 Washington & Lee (Pool C) vs. #10 Denison (NCAC AQ)



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2013-04-11



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