D-III on D3: NCAA Tournament Bracketology, April 22nd

Here is a quick breakdown of the situations in Pool C and Pool B for selections to the NCAA Division III tournament.

Pool C: At this point, after projecting the AQs, I have narrowed the list to 10 contenders. It has become apparent that with only 5 bids to go around, there are going to be several very unhappy teams on Selection Sunday. Frankly, none of these teams is safe. The 10 teams in consideration are:

Washington College
Washington & Lee
Middlebury
Lynchburg
Stevens
Plattsburgh
Connecticut College
York
Franklin & Marshall
St. Lawrence

If you are in that group, you likely need to win out until your conference championship or come close to it. If you are not in that group, and I don't have you winning the AQ below, it's almost a certainty that your only avenue into the NCAA tournament is through winning a conference tournament.

Pool B: What a mess! There a lot of very similar resumes and little quality among these teams ... but a whopping 5 bids to hand out. There are 7 teams** in consideration. They are, in no particular order:

Otterbein
Eastern
Centre
Sewanee
Keuka
Colorado College
Christopher Newport

Christopher Newport is surprisingly the easiest to hand a bid. They are 8-7 in-region, by far the worst record of the contenders. However, they played the most difficult schedule and have the only win against a regionally-ranked opponent (Hampden-Sydney) in all of Pool B. That will pay serious dividends with the Committee.

After that, I believe the Committee will reward the more difficult schedules per the Criteria given that all the teams have high winning percentages. This has played out many times in the past, where SOS overrides a gaudy record. As such, it is actually the two teams with the best records that were eliminated from contention first, Keuka and Eastern. Their SOS numbers are significantly lower than those of the rest of the field.

** The original post had Berry as a Pool B contender. However, they are a provisional D3 member and tournament-ineligible. Games played against them count for opponents, however.


Bracket as of April 22nd


North

#1 Cortland (SUNYAC AQ)
      vs. winner of
#8 Western New England (CCC AQ) vs. #9 Keene State (Little East AQ)

#4 Tufts (NESCAC AQ) vs. #13 Norwich (GNAC AQ)
      vs. winner of
#5 Middlebury (Pool C) vs. #12 Castleton (NAC AQ)



#3 Nazareth (Empire 8 AQ) vs. #14 Adrian** (MIAA AQ)
      vs. winner of
#6 Stevens (Pool C) vs. #11 Springfield (Pilgrim AQ)

#2 RIT (Liberty AQ)
      vs. winner of
#7 Cabrini** (CSAQ AQ) vs. #10 Montclair State (Skyline AQ)



South

#1 Dickinson (Centennial AQ)
      vs. winner of
#8 Denison (NCAC AQ) vs. #9 Aurora (Midwest AQ)

#4 Washington College (Pool C) vs. #13 Otterbein (Pool B)
      vs. winner of
#5 Lynchburg (Pool C) vs. #12 Sewanee (Pool B)



#3 Stevenson (MAC AQ) vs. #14 Colorado College (Pool B)
      vs. winner of
#6 Washington & Lee (Pool C) vs. #11 Christopher Newport (Pool B)

#2 Roanoke (ODAC AQ) vs. #15 Centre (Pool B)
      vs. winner of
#7 Salisbury (CAC AQ) vs. #10 Goucher (Landmark AQ)



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2013-04-22



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