D-III on D3: NCAA Tournament Bracketology, May 1st

It's May, and with Selection Sunday only days away, the picture is becoming clearer. Here is a look at the Pool B and C breakdowns followed by the bracket.

Pool B: Since the last bracketology, there have been two developments of note. Both Ohio Wesleyan and Virginia Wesleyan entered the Regional Rankings. This results in a regionally-ranked win for Sewanee and a regionally-ranked loss for Otterbein. Both will help their respective resumes. As you will see below, I have the same five Pool B teams as last week. Eastern and Keuka continue to be the last two teams out. Their SOS rates significantly behind the rest of the teams, which will offset their superior winning percentages.

Pool C: I have decided to break the entire conceivable Pool C universe into tiers, so that everyone knows where their team stands if they do not win the AQ. I will not include much commentary. If you have a question as to why a team lands in a certain tier, feel free to ask (see the Forum link near the bottom). I am not including Cabrini in this exercise because, bottom line, they are a lock to win the CSAC.

Tournament Locks: RIT, Dickinson, Cortland. These teams have all but punched their tickets to the NCAAs even if they lose in their conference tournaments; there is no scenario where each would not get a Pool C bid.

Tier 1: Salisbury, Roanoke, Tufts, Stevenson, Nazareth

Tier 2: Washington & Lee, Washington College, Lynchburg, Stevens

Tier 3: Middlebury, Denison, and the Franklin & Marshall/Gettysburg semifinal winner in the Centennial Conference

Tier 4: St. Mary's, Franklin & Marshall/Gettysburg loser, Connecticut College (can jump a tier or two if they knock off Tufts in NESCAC semifinals)

Tier 5: Plattsburgh, St. Lawrence, York

Tier 6: The field


Bracket as of May 1st


North

#1 Cortland (SUNYAC AQ)
      vs. winner of
#8 Endicott (CCC AQ) vs. #9 Keene State (Little East AQ)

#4 Nazareth (Empire 8 AQ) vs. #13 Adrian** (MIAA AQ)
      vs. winner of
#5 Tufts (Pool C) vs. #12 Castleton (NAC AQ)



#3 Middlebury (NESCAC AQ) vs. #14 Norwich (GNAC AQ)
      vs. winner of
#6 Stevens (Pool C) vs. #11 Springfield (Pilgrim AQ)

#2 RIT (Liberty AQ)
      vs. winner of
#7 Cabrini** (CSAQ AQ) vs. #10 Montclair State (Skyline AQ)



South

#1 Dickinson (Centennial AQ)
      vs. winner of
#8 Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC AQ) vs. #9 Aurora (Midwest AQ)

#4 Washington College (Pool C) vs. #13 Otterbein (Pool B)
      vs. winner of
#5 Lynchburg (Pool C) vs. #12 Christopher Newport (Pool B)



#3 Stevenson (MAC AQ) vs. #14 Colorado College (Pool B)
      vs. winner of
#6 Washington & Lee (Pool C) vs. #11 Sewanee (Pool B)

#2 Roanoke (ODAC AQ) vs. #15 Centre (Pool B)
      vs. winner of
#7 Salisbury (CAC AQ) vs. #10 Goucher (Landmark AQ)



** Two teams, Cabrini and Adrian from the "South" region, had to shift to the North to balance the bracket after the South gobbled up all the Pool B bids and three of the Pool C bids. These two teams are the most logical to move, as no flight will be required for their prospective games. The only flight involved for the field above is Colorado College to Stevenson.

Visit the thread on the LaxPower Forum to read or participate in the discussion.



D-III is a long-time contributor to the LaxPower Forum. What appears above is a lightly edited version of his post there.

2013-05-01



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