Computer Predictions: Last Week's and Final Results for 2013

How did the computer fare with this week's predictions? Surprisingly, the results turned out to be the best of 2013, a fitting way to cap off the season.

As a reminder, we give the computer credit for games picked correctly (of course) and for games it declares toss-ups if the margin of victory is three goals or fewer. Picks in blue below were correct; those in red were wrong. For the games that were rated as toss-ups, the margin of victory is shown along with overtimes, if any.

For men's games, the computer rebounded with one its best weeks ever, finishing with 26 of 28 correct for a 92.9% picking average. For the women's games, results were even better, with the computer correctly calling 34 of 36 games (94.4%). For all games picked, the record was 60 of 64 (93.8%). The weekly and season-to-date tallies are in the table below.

Men's Division I had the games that were hardest to predict. The computer's record there was 72.7% vs. 87.5% for MD2 and 86.3% for MD3. The records for Women's Divisions I-III were 88.5%, 93.8%, and 88.6%, respectively.

WeekMenWomenAll
#178.0%91.1%84.9%
#285.0%78.8%82.2%
#384.8%84.6%84.7%
#481.0%96.0%89.1%
#582.5%93.4%89.1%
#680.0%90.0%85.0%
#767.9%84.6%75.9%
#892.9%94.4%93.8%
YTD81.6%89.8%86.0%

For no good reason we can think of, the computer's predictions have improved over the four years we have run them: 81.7% in 2010, 82.8% in 2011, 83.7% in 2012, and 86.0% this spring.

We hope you've enjoyed the feature and perhaps tried to see whether your own prognostications were better. Enjoy the remainder of the tournaments!


Men's Division I

5/11   Denver (#3)                Albany (#12)               Denver
5/11 North Carolina (#1) Lehigh (#11) North Carolina
5/11 Notre Dame (#6) Detroit Notre Dame
5/11 Penn State (#9) Yale (#13) toss-up by 3

5/12 Duke (#6) Loyola (#4) toss-up by 1 (2OT)
5/12 Maryland (#8) Cornell (#2) toss-up by 8
5/12 Ohio State (#10) Towson Ohio State
5/12 Syracuse (#5) Bryant Syracuse


Men's Division II

5/11   Adelphi (#2)               NYIT (#7)                  Adelphi
5/11 Le Moyne (#4) LIU Post (#5) Le Moyne
5/11 Limestone (#3) Seton Hill (#8) toss-up by 3
5/11 Mercyhurst (#1) Lake Erie (#10) Mercyhurst


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2013-05-13



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