NCAA Lacrosse Semifinals: A Brief Tale of the Statistical Tape

The women's NCAA semifinals take place on Friday at Villanova University, while the men's semifinals are on Saturday at Lincoln Financial Field. Below is a comparison of the teams using LaxPower data and NCAA team statistics (with rank in parenthesis); see the key at the bottom. Also shown are the results over the last 10 years of the match-ups involving the teams in the semifinal pairings.

The conclusions/predictions? Please draw your own ... but the computer calls both women's games toss-ups (it would pick Maryland and Northwestern if you put a demagnetizer near its hard drive). On the men's side, the computer makes Cornell a slight favorite and calls the Syracuse-Denver contest a toss-up, with the faintest of nods to the Orange if it someone threatened to yank its CPU.

Men's Semifinals

Statistic   Syracuse      Denver          Cornell       Duke
Record 15-3 14-4 14-3 14-5

Cptr. Rank 7 9 1 10
RPI Rank 3 1 2 8
SOS Rank 10 12 11 17
Poll Rank 2 6 8 4

GFA 11.72 (13) 12.67 (5) 14.59 (2) 13.84 (3)
GAA 8.61 (12) 9.67 (21) 8.65 (13) 10.00 (27)
Margin 3.11 (7) 3.00 (9) 5.94 (1) 3.84 (2)
FO Win % 0.428 (54) 0.520 (23) 0.559 (12) 0.625 (3)
Man-Up 0.382 (19) 0.348 (30) 0.392 (14) 0.368 (23)
Man-Dn 0.590 (52) 0.700 (16) 0.774 (4) 0.614 (44)
CTs 7.00 (37) 5.50 (60) 10.12 (2) 7.37 (34)
Asst. 7.39 (7) 7.11 (11) 7.76 (4) 7.95 (2)
GBs 28.72 (47) 29.11 (40) 37.47 (4) 37.47 (3)
TOs 12.11 (2) 12.61 (6) 15.29 (35) 14.53 (27)
Pts. 19.11 (10) 19.78 (7) 22.35 (2) 21.79 (3)
Saves 9.06 (61) 12.39 (14) 9.47 (58) 9.58 (57)
Shot % 0.316 (11) 0.341 (3) 0.325 (8) 0.322 (9)

Previous Match-ups

Denver vs. Syracuse
2011 2/20 at Syracuse: Syracuse 13, Denver 7
2010 2/19 at Syracuse: Syracuse 15, Denver 9

Cornell vs. Duke
2009 3/17 at Duke: Cornell 10, Duke 6
2007 3/20 at Duke: Cornell 7, Duke 6
2007 5/26 at NCAA Semifinals: Duke 12, Cornell 11
2006 3/21 at Duke: Cornell 11, Duke 7
2005 5/22 at NCAA Quarterfinals: Princeton: Duke 11, Cornell 8

* * * *

Women's Semifinals

Statistic    Maryland    Syracuse      Northwestern  North Carolina
Record 21-0 18-3 19-2 16-3

Cptr. Rank 1 3 4 5
RPI Rank 1 3 2 4
SOS Rank 4 5 3 1
Poll Rank 1 5 2 3

GFA 15.19 (3) 15.33 (2) 12.71 (19) 13.32 (13)
GAA 8.10 (8) 8.43 (13) 7.90 (7) 8.26 (11)
Margin 7.10 (4) 6.90 (5) 4.81 (12) 5.05 (10)
CTs 8.05 (35) 8.95 (18) 8.71 (22) 7.95 (39)
DCs 13.90 (10) 14.67 (3) 13.57 (16) 12.79 (31)
GBs 15.81 (47) 17.43 (20) 16.95 (24) 17.05 (21)

Previous Match-ups

Maryland vs. Syracuse
2013 2/17 at Syracuse: Maryland 19, Syracuse 11
2012 3/10 at Maryland: Syracuse 10, Maryland 9
2011 3/12 at Maryland: Maryland 7, Syracuse 5
2010 5/28 at NCAA Tournament: Maryland 14, Syracuse 5
2009 5/16 at Maryland: Maryland 12, Syracuse 10
2005 4/24 at Maryland: Maryland 20, Syracuse 4
2004 3/03 at Syracuse: Maryland 14, Syracuse 11

North Carolina vs. Northwestern
2013 2/22 at North Carolina: North Carolina 11, Northwestern 8
2012 4/13 at Northwestern: Northwestern 8, North Carolina 7
2011 2/25 at North Carolina: Northwestern 7, North Carolina 6 (OT)
2011 5/27 at NCAA Tournament: Northwestern 11, North Carolina 10
2010 4/18 at Northwestern: North Carolina 18, Northwestern 16
2010 5/28 at NCAA Tournament: Northwestern 15, North Carolina 10
2009 3/02 at North Carolina: Northwestern 12, North Carolina 7
2009 5/24 at NCAA Tournament: Northwestern 21, North Carolina 7
2008 4/20 at Northwestern: Northwestern 16, North Carolina 3
2007 2/17 at North Carolina: North Carolina 9, Northwestern 8 (2OT)
2006 4/21 at Northwestern: Northwestern 18, North Carolina 10
2006 5/20 at Northwestern: Northwestern 17, North Carolina 6
2005 2/20 at North Carolina: Northwestern 6, North Carolina 5

Key
GFA: Goals-for average (per game)
GAA: Goals-against average (per game)
Margin: Scoring margin (GFA - GAA)
FO Win %: Face-off win percentage
Man-Up: Extra-man (EMO) goals per opportunity
Man-Dn: Opponent EMO stopped per opportunity
CTs: Caused turnovers per game
Asst.: Assists per game
GBs: Ground balls per game
TOs: Turnovers per game
Pts.: Goals + assists per game
Saves: Goalie saves per game
Shot %: Goals scored as % of shots taken
DCs: Draw controls per game

Note that some statistics (e.g., ground balls) can be affected by who is recording them.

2013-05-23



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