Selection Probabilities - Division I Lacrosse Tournament - 4/06

Teams can earn a berth in the NCAA tournament via automatic qualification (AQ), which is based on winning their conference tournament, or by being selected at-large. It's still early, but what are the chances that teams will land an invitation to the "dance"?

For Men's Division I, Larry Feldman has used ratings percentage index (RPI), quality wins (QW), and strength of schedule (SOS) data from past years to model the probabilities that teams will make the tournament based on their standing on those indices. The model for Women's Division I uses RPI and SOS. Here is where things stand as of games played through 4/06:

NCAA Tournament Selection Probabilities

Use the selector at the top to display the WD1 selection chances.

See the NCAA Tournament page for details on the selection criteria, date/ticket information, and copies of the blank brackets for the six men's and women's NCAA divisions.


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