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Introduction

The past five years, LaxPower has employed a computer rating system for
college and high school lacrosse. Computer results were based strictly
on game scores, strength of opponents (based on game scores) and home-field
advantage. While this formula focuses on trends to predict the goal margin
of victory for any two arbitrary teams, the system does not take into
account other factors considered important in the ranking of all teams.
In order to include these additional factors, LaxPower will employ
a formula similar to the College Football "Bowl Championship Series" or
"BCS" rating system for the national high school (boys and girls) and 
college (mens and womens) lacrosse. An explanation of the BCS formula and 
the modified formulas for high school and college lacrosse are described 
below. The modified BCS formulas will be known as the Coaches/Computer 
Rating (CCR) System. 

Bowl Championship Series

The BCS is a rating system used to assign College Football Division I-A
teams to the Orange, Sugar, Fiesta and Rose Bowls and more importantly,
select the two highest rated teams to play in a bowl to produce a "National
Champion." There are five factors or components in the current BCS formula
which will determine the top two contenders:
      (1) polls                                                                                                                                                                                         
      (2) computer ratings                                                                                                                                                                              
      (3) strength of schedule                                                                                                                                                                          
      (4) quality wins factor                                                                                                                                                                           
      (5) loss factor.

The system produces a number for each team based on the five components
above as follows: the average poll ranking (based on two polls), the average
computer ranking (based on eight computer systems), the strength of schedule
ranking, the total number of losses and finally the total number of "quality
wins". The total BCS rating is based on adding the first four components
and subtracting the fifth component. The lower this total number for a team,
the higher BCS rating.

As an example, for the week ending November 16, the BCS standings for
college football Div I-A were as follows:

   Team              BCS    Poll  Computer     SOS     Losses   Quality 
                    Rating  Ave      Ave                         Wins

 1 Nebraska          2.87    2.0    1.17       1.00       0       1.3
 2 Miami             5.25    1.0    2.33       1.92       0        -
 3 Oklahoma          8.13    4.0    3.33       0.80       1       1.0
 4 Florida           9.95    3.0    4.83       1.12       1        -
 5 Oregon           13.22    6.5    5.00       0.92       1       0.2
 6 Texas            14.39    5.0    6.33       2.16       1       0.1
 7 Tennessee        14.95    6.5    7.17       0.28       1        -
 8 Illinois         19.76   10.0    8.00       0.76       1        -
 9 Stanford         22.81   13.0    8.67       0.24       2       1.1
10 Michigan         23.07   11.0   10.67       0.20       2       0.8
11 Washington       25.65   12.0   11.83       1.32       2       1.5
12 Maryland         25.99    8.5   13.33       3.16       1        -
13 BYU              26.49    8.5   13.83       4.16       0        -
14 Washington St    29.74   15.5   11.00       1.84       2       0.6
15 Colorado         30.87   14.0   13.83       1.04       2        -


The poll average is based on the results of USA Today/ESPN Coaches and
AP Media Polls. The computer average is based on the results of six of
eight computer ratings (highest and lowest eliminated for each team) includ-
ing the Sagarin Ratings, the Atlanta-Journal Constitution, etc. The strength
of schedule is based on the rankings of each team divided by 25 where the
the cumulative won/loss records of each teams opponents and the cumulative
won/loss records of each opponent's opponents are combined (0.67 * opponents
+ 0.33 * opponent's opponents). Loss factor is simply giving a team one 
point for each loss. The Quality Wins Factor rewards a team 1.5 points for 
defeating the top ranked BCS team reduced to 0.1 points for defeating the
15th ranked BCS team. No points are awarded for defeating teams not ranked 
in the BCS top 15.

Nebraska is first with the lowest BCS score of 2.87. The score is based on
a poll average of 2.0 plus a computer rating average of 1.17 plus a strength
of schedule score of 1.00 (ranked 25th divided by 25), no losses and 1.3
quality win points for beating Oklahoma.


The modified BCS formulas for college and high school lacrosse and an
explanation of each follows.

College Formula

The BCS formula remains virtually in tact for college lacrosse. This forumla
will be applied independently to:

             Men's Division I
             Men's Division II
             Women's Division I
             Women's Division II
             Women's Division III
             Men's USLIA
             Men's JUCO

A discussion of the Polls, Computer Ratings, Strength of Schedule, Quality
Wins Factor and Loss Factor as they apply only to college are discussed
below.

As an example, for Men's Division I, at the end of the regular season and
prior to the NCAA tournament, Princeton topped the list with the lowest
score of 1.7. They received 1 point for ranking number one in the polls,
one point for ranking number one in the power ratings, 0.64 points for
ranking 16th in strength of schedule (16/25 = 0.64), one point for one
loss (against Syracuse) and this total was reduced by earning 1.90 quality
win points for beating Johns Hopkins (1.20), Virginia (0.40), Hofstra (0.10)
and Cornell (0.20). The SOS was based on the W-L percentage of their
opponent's and the W-L record of their opponent's opponents. The Quality Win
Factor was based on the ranking of the Polls (STX/USLIA) as opposed to the
ranking of the BCS ratings.

   No Team                         CCR = Poll  +  PR +  SOS +  QWF + Loss  
                                                                                                                                                                                                        
    1 Princeton                    1.7    1.0    1.0    0.6   -1.9    1.0                                                                                                      
    2 Syracuse                     2.4    2.0    2.0    0.4   -4.0    2.0                                                                                                      
    3 Notre Dame                   7.5    3.0    4.0    0.8   -1.3    1.0                                                                                                      
    4 Johns Hopkins                9.7    4.0    6.0    0.0   -3.3    3.0                                                                                                      
    5 Georgetown                  10.3    5.0    5.0    0.3   -2.0    2.0                                                                                                      
    6 Maryland                    11.7    6.0    7.0    0.4   -3.7    2.0                                                                                                      
    7 Massachusetts               13.6    8.0    3.0    1.0   -0.4    2.0                                                                                                      
    8 Loyola                      20.0    7.0   12.0    0.2   -2.2    3.0                                                                                                      
    9 Towson                      22.5   10.0   10.0    0.6   -1.1    3.0                                                                                                      
   10 Virginia                    23.3   12.0    8.0    0.1   -2.8    6.0                                                                                                      
   11 Navy                        26.4   13.0    9.0    0.5   -1.1    5.0                                                                                                      
   12 Bucknell                    29.9   11.0   15.0    0.9    0.0    3.0                                                                                                      
   13 Hofstra                     30.2   15.0   11.0    0.2   -2.0    6.0                                                                                                      
   14 Cornell                     34.0   14.0   13.0    1.0    0.0    6.0                                                                                                      
   15 Penn State                  37.3   17.0   14.0    0.5   -0.2    6.0                                                                                                      
   16 UMBC                        39.6   16.0   17.0    0.1   -0.5    7.0                                                                                                      
   17 Army                        42.3   19.0   16.0    1.3    0.0    6.0                                                                                                      
   18 Duke                        43.0    9.0   30.0    0.4   -1.4    5.0                                                                                                      
   19 Pennsylvania                45.2   20.0   18.0    0.7   -0.5    7.0                                                                                                      
   20 North Carolina              61.5   18.0   38.0    0.2   -0.7    6.0                                                                                                      
                                         ........................
   30 Harvard                       -      -    28.0    1.2   -0.7    7.0                                                                                                      
                                         ........................
   40 Hartford                      -      -    40.0    1.6    0.0    8.0                                                                                                      
                                         ........................

Teams that did not receive a ranking in the Polls are notgiven a numerical
BCS rating but are listed in order of the summation of the remaining comp-
onents. 

 What Games Count?

For college, all games during the regular season counted as well as the
ECAC tournament. NCAA and USLIA championship tournament games will count in
a post-season final CCR.

Polls

The polls used for college are as follows:

             Men's Division I:            STX/USLIA
             Men's Division II:           STX/USLIA
             Men's Division III:          STX/USLIA
             Women's Division I:          IWCLA
             Women's Division II:         IWCLA
             Women's Division III:        IWCLA
             Men's USLIA:                 USLIA Top 25
             Men's JUCO:                  NJCAA Men's Lacrosse Poll


See Polls for more details.  


Computer Ratings

The computer ratings will consider only this year's scores and not past
year's performance. This means that at the beginning of the season, all
teams are equal. After the fifth week of the season, computer ratings are
added the the CCR formula. The power ratings are calculated so that if you
subtract the power ratings of the two opposing teams and add the home field
advantage, the result should equal the goal margin or difference in scores
between the two teams. The total error of satisfying this equation goes
to zero when the errors for all games played by a team are added. Inter-
divisional games are not counted. Running-up-the-score will only slightly
improve a power rating and will have a minor effect in the CCR as the
computer ratings represent only one of five components. See analysis
for more details.

Strength of Schedule

Strength of Schedule for college is based on the BCS formula = won/loss
percentage of an opponent and the won/loss percentage of the opponent's
opponents. The average is based on 2/3 of the opponents won/loss percentage
and 1/3 of the opponent's opponent won/loss percentage. The average of the                                                                                                                                      
opponent's power ratings (used last year) is shown for comparison but                                                                                                                                   
is no longer used in the college formula. The SOS ranking is divided by 25
to determine the "quartile" for the CCR forumla. See SOS for more details.

Quality Win Factor

The Quality Win Factor is based on the number of wins against quality
opponent's. A quality opponent is defined as a team which is ranked in
the top 15 of BCS. The CCR will use the Coaches Poll (top 20) for Men and
Women Divisions I and III, USLIA divisions based on the polls listed above.
For Men and Women division II and JUCO, the CCR will use the top 10 teams.
A victory against the number 1 ranked team in the polls is worth 1.0 points
and a victory against the 20th ranked team is worth 0.05 points. For div-
ision II and Juco, a victory against the top team will be worth 1.0 point
and a victory against the tenth team is worth 0.1 point. See QWF for
more details.


Loss Factor

The Loss Factor is simply the sum of all losses by a team, but does not
include losses occuring for inter-divisional games. See Loss Factor
for more details.

Summary

In summary the CCR for college lacrosse is virtually the same as the BCS
for college football with the major difference in the definition of the
quality teams. Laxpower is only one computer rating for college lacrosse as
compared with the average of eight computer ratings for college football. 



High School Formula

The modified BCS formula for high school is similar to the college coaches/
computer rating with some basic differences. The high school formula is
applied nationally and not to individual divisions or regions. All the
regions are tied together through regional offset margins which is discussed
under Computer Ratings. The Polls include 25 teams and not 15 or 10 as is
the case with college divisions. The strength of schedule is based on a
weighted average of each team's opponent's power ratings and not the won-lost
records of opponent's (and their opponent's) as is employed by the BCS. A
discussion of the Polls, Computer Ratings, Strength of Schedule, Quality Wins
Factor and Loss Factor as they apply only to high school are discussed below.

As an example of the formula, the table below illustrates the results of the
CCR had they applied to the 2001 boys high school lacrosse season.
Landon received the lowest total (-0.4) based on a poll ranking of 1 (Inside
lacrosse / Warrior Boys High School Poll), a computer ranking of 1, a
strength of schedule of 0.4 based on a ranking of 9th (divided by 25), one
point for one loss and (-3.8) bonus points for quality wins over Loyola
(0.88), Gilman (0.84), Haverford (0.08), Georgetown Prep (0.68 * 2.0) and
DeMatha (0.64).

   No Team                         CCR = Poll +  PR +  SOS  +  QWF + Loss

    1 Landon                      -0.4    1.0    1.0    0.4   -3.8    1.0
    2 Loyola                       8.9    4.0    3.0    0.2   -2.3    4.0
    3 Garden City                 13.3    6.0    2.0    5.8   -1.4    1.0
    4 Yorktown                    16.9    8.0    6.0    1.8   -0.8    2.0
    5 Taft                        17.1   12.0    4.0    1.1    0.0    0.0
    6 McDonogh                    19.1    7.0    9.0    0.3   -2.2    5.0
    7 Gilman                      24.2    5.0   18.0    0.0   -2.8    4.0
    8 West Genesee                27.2   15.0    8.0    0.7   -0.5    4.0
    9 Georgetown Prep             27.8    9.0   17.0    0.5   -1.7    3.0
   10 Brother Rice                33.3   14.0    7.0   11.3    0.0    1.0
   11 DeMatha                     33.4   10.0   19.0    1.0   -0.7    4.0
   12 Boys' Latin                 34.6   11.0   20.0    0.2   -1.6    5.0
   13 Northport                   38.5    2.0   26.0    9.2   -0.7    2.0
   14 Ward Melville               42.0   16.0   10.0   13.4   -0.3    3.0
   15 Moorestown                  48.0   19.0   23.0    3.2   -0.1    3.0
   16 St Anthony's                48.4   21.0   21.0    4.4    0.0    2.0
   17 Wantagh                     55.6    3.0   49.0    4.1   -1.5    1.0
   18 Sachem                      58.5   18.0   24.0   13.9   -1.4    4.0
   19 Haverford School            61.0   24.0   31.0    1.0    0.0    5.0
   20 Fayettev'le-Manlius         66.6   25.0   38.0    1.0   -0.4    3.0
   21 Auburn                      66.6   17.0   44.0    1.7   -0.1    4.0
   22 Mountain Lakes              87.0   23.0   58.0    2.3   -0.3    4.0
   23 New Canaan                 101.7   20.0   72.0    5.7    0.0    4.0
   24 Ridley                     116.9   22.0   87.0    4.9    0.0    3.0
   25 Pinkerton                     -      -     5.0    9.3    0.0    0.0
   26 Upper Arlington               -      -    11.0    3.4   -0.5    2.0
   27 Loomis Chaffee                -      -    13.0    0.6    0.0    4.0
   28 Avon Old Farms                -      -    15.0    0.8    0.0    3.0
   29 Liverpool                     -      -    16.0    0.9   -0.8    5.0
   30 Penn Yan                      -      -    12.0   10.8   -0.5    1.0

The system does not currently consider "running-up-the-score" and weighting
according to when the game was played but both will be considered by a
coaches committee.

What Games Count?

For high school, all games appearing on a teams schedule will count as 
official games and used in the ratings. All scrimmages or tournament 
games occuring during the season will not count unless both coaches agree 
prior to playing the game that the game(s) will count. (Contact: 
baldo@schore.com). All post-season championship tournament games will
be treated as official games and will count in a final CCR.

Polls

The high school poll is based on a poll conducted by Laxpower and voted on
by high school boys coaches. We currently do not have a girl's high school
lacrosse poll but hope to implement one at the earliest date. Girl's high
school coaches, please contact Larry at (laf@laxpower.com) to be included
on future committees. See Polls for more details
on the polls.

Computer Ratings

The computer ratings will consider only this year's scores and not past
year's performance. This means that at the beginning of the season, all
teams are equal. After the fifth week of the season, computer ratings are
added the the CCR formula. The power ratings are calculated so that if you
subtract the power ratings of the two opposing teams and add the home field
advantage, the result should equal the goal margin or difference in scores
between the two teams. For high school, the power rating is based on two
components: a local component considering games against "local" teams and
an external component, based on games played against all other teams in
other regions. The sum of the two yields the overall power rating. See
analysis for more details. 

Strength of Schedule

For high school, the strength of schedule is based on a weighted average
of all opponents power ratings and not the won-loss record of opponents.
The SOS ranking is divided by 300 to normalize it. " See SOS for more details.

Quality Win Factor

The Quality Win Factor is based on the number of wins against quality
opponent's. A quality opponent is defined as a team which is ranked in
the top 25 based on the polls. A victory against the number one rated team
is worth 1.00 points whereas a victory against the 25th rated team is worth
0.04 points. See QWF for more details.    


Loss Factor

The Loss Factor is simply the sum of all losses by a team but does not
include intersectional or inter-state losses. See Loss Factor
for more details.

Summary

In summary for high school lacrosse, the method will be increasingly
influenced by the coaches and the actual formula will be voted on by a
special coaches committee. High school coaches, please contact George @
(baldo@cshore.com) to become a member of these committees.


Conclusion

In summary, the purpose of this new procedure is to correct problems of past
years and to constantly evolve the system to produce the fairest results.
Please send opinions and suggestions to (laf@laxpower.com).





 Copyright 1997-2002 LaxPower.  Last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2015 12:11 PM.

 

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 Dr. Laurence Feldman, Executive Director
 Dr. Robert Kroshefsky, Director of Men's Lacrosse
 Dr. Daniel Larsen, Director of Women's Lacrosse
 George Baldassare, Director of Boys' Lacrosse

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