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Chenango Forks Blue Devils (16-2)

Region: NY B Sec 4

State: NY

Coach: Mark Freije

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/27	CORNING EAST (19-4)	NY C Sec 4	98.4	1	L	3-	18		-0.075
4/03	at Elmira-Notre Dame (8-8)	NY C Sec 4	82.3		W	13-	7		0.075
4/05	SETON CATHOLIC CENTRAL (14-6)	NY B Sec 4	88.4	7	W	13-	8		0.150
4/10	at Chenango Valley (13-5)	NY C Sec 4	88.0	8	W	16-	10		0.150
4/13	at Oneonta (0-16)	NY C Sec 4	69.6		W	15-	1		0.000
4/14	at Horseheads (5-13)	NY A Sec 4	86.7	9	W	14-	7		0.175
4/20	DRYDEN (2-15)	NY C Sec 4	71.3		W	17-	0		0.000
4/21	at Maine-Endwell (3-15)	NY B Sec 4	77.3		W	19-	4		0.000
4/24	at Johnson City (6-11)	NY B Sec 4	80.7		W	13-	6		0.050
4/26	WHITNEY POINT (7-13)	NY C Sec 4	80.4		W	18-	5		0.000
5/01	at Owego Free Academy (11-8)	NY B Sec 4	85.4	10	W	9-	7		0.150
5/05	vs. Kingston # (12-7)	NY A Sec 9	86.8		W	15-	7		0.075
5/08	MAINE-ENDWELL (3-15)	NY B Sec 4	77.3		W	18-	1		0.000
5/11	JOHNSON CITY (6-11)	NY B Sec 4	80.7		W	17-	6		0.000
5/15	at Whitney Point (7-13)	NY C Sec 4	80.4		W	17-	7		0.050
5/17	OWEGO FREE ACADEMY (11-8)	NY B Sec 4	85.4	10	W	9-	7		0.100
5/30	OWEGO FREE ACADEMY (11-8)	NY B Sec 4	85.4	10	W	10-	7		0.100
6/01	CORNING WEST (14-7)	NY B Sec 4	94.8	3	L	5-	9		-0.225
# Neutral site			83.8						0.78

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/27	H	Corning East	3-	18	-15	-7	–––	-0.89	-7.82
4/03	A	Elmira-Notre Dame	13-	7	6	7		0.89	-0.55
4/05	H	Seton Catholic Central	13-	8	5	4		-0.89	0.63
4/10	A	Chenango Valley	16-	10	6	4	+	0.89	2.34
4/13	A	Oneonta	15-	1	14	17	–	0.89	-2.74
4/14	A	Horseheads	14-	7	7	3	++	0.89	4.47
4/20	H	Dryden	17-	0	17	19		-0.89	-1.94
4/21	A	Maine-Endwell	19-	4	15	10	++	0.89	5.47
4/24	A	Johnson City	13-	6	7	8		0.89	-0.85
4/26	H	Whitney Point	18-	5	13	10	+	-0.89	3.40
5/01	A	Owego Free Academy	9-	7	2	4	–	0.89	-2.12
5/05	N	Kingston	15-	7	8	7		0.00		0.89
5/08	H	Maine-Endwell	18-	1	17	11	++	-0.89	5.70
5/11	H	Johnson City	17-	6	11	10		-0.89	1.38
5/15	A	Whitney Point	17-	7	10	8	+	0.89	2.18
5/17	H	Owego Free Academy	9-	7	2	6	–	-0.89	-3.90
5/30	H	Owego Free Academy	10-	7	3	6	–	-0.89	-2.90
6/01	H	Corning West	5-	9	-4	-1	–	-0.89	-2.76
									0.00	0.89

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/27	H	Corning East	3-	18	5.00
4/13	A	Oneonta	15-	1	2.74
4/20	H	Dryden	17-	0	1.94
4/21	A	Maine-Endwell	19-	4	-5.47
4/26	H	Whitney Point	18-	5	-3.40
5/08	H	Maine-Endwell	18-	1	-5.70
5/11	H	Johnson City	17-	6	-1.38
5/15	A	Whitney Point	17-	7	0.00
10-goal correction: -0.35

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	94.		Natl CCR Rank	223
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	93.87		Natl Power Rank	223
Natl SOS Rating	77.16		Natl SOS Rank	1172
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.78		Natl Quality Win Rank	390
W-L Pct Rating	0.89		W-L Pct Rank	89
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	16-2		Ave Goal diff (all )	6.9
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-9.5
Wins/Losses (top 10)	6-2		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	0.8
Wins/Losses (top 20)	15-2		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	6.8
Wins/Losses (last 3)	2-1		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	0.3


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