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Chaparral Firebirds (11-6)

Region: AZ Div-1

State: AZ

Coach: Jason Silkey

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
2/07	at Pinnacle (7-7)	AZ Div-2	81.9		W	13-	1		0.075
2/10	HIGHLAND (3-9)	AZ Div-1	81.3		W	13-	5		0.075
2/17	CHANDLER (7-6)	AZ Div-1	87.4	8	W	9-	5		0.150
2/21	at Gilbert (5-7)	AZ Div-1	86.1		W	11-	9		0.200
2/27	at Tucson (8-5)	AZ Div-1	89.6	5	W	12-	11	ot	0.275
3/02	at Brophy Prep (15-5)	AZ Div-1	94.8	1	L	7-	10		-0.100
3/12	HORIZON (4-9)	AZ Div-2	74.5		W	11-	3		0.000
3/14	WESTERN RESERVE ACAD (16-3)	OH 1 Indep	98.7		L	6-	13		-0.075
3/21	NOTRE DAME PREP (1-11)	AZ Div-1	76.1		W	14-	6		0.000
3/23	AIR ACADEMY (10-6)	CO South	90.3		L	4-	10		-0.275
3/24	DESERT MOUNTAIN (10-4)	AZ Div-1	90.9	2	W	6-	2		0.225
4/02	DUBLIN JEROME (16-5)	OH 1 Reg 2	97.2		L	6-	11		-0.100
4/04	at Mountain Pointe (7-6)	AZ Div-1	87.9	6	W	7-	4		0.250
4/11	DESERT VISTA (10-4)	AZ Div-1	90.9	3	W	7-	2		0.225
4/13	at Saguaro (7-6)	AZ Div-1	87.6	7	L	4-	9		-0.275
4/21	DESERT VISTA (10-4)	AZ Div-1	90.9	3	W	7-	5		0.225
4/27	vs. Brophy Prep # (15-5)	AZ Div-1	94.8	1	L	2-	12		-0.125
# Neutral site			88.4						0.75

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
2/07	A	Pinnacle	13-	1	12	7	++	1.03	5.25
2/10	H	Highland	13-	5	8	7		-1.03	0.79
2/17	H	Chandler	9-	5	4	4		-1.03	-0.02
2/21	A	Gilbert	11-	9	2	2		1.03	0.42
2/27	A	Tucson	12-	11	1	-1		1.03	1.79
3/02	A	Brophy Prep	7-	10	-3	-6	+	1.03	2.93
3/12	H	Horizon	11-	3	8	14	–––	-1.03	-6.41
3/14	H	Western Reserve Acad	6-	13	-7	-7		-0.95		0.22
3/21	H	Notre Dame Prep	14-	6	8	12	–	-1.03	-3.86
3/23	H	Air Academy	4-	10	-6	1	–––	-0.81		-7.09
3/24	H	Desert Mountain	6-	2	4	1	+	-1.03	2.50
4/02	H	Dublin Jerome	6-	11	-5	-6		-0.95		0.70
4/04	A	Mountain Pointe	7-	4	3	0	+	1.03	3.08
4/11	H	Desert Vista	7-	2	5	1	+	-1.03	3.82
4/13	A	Saguaro	4-	9	-5	1	–––	1.03	-6.02
4/21	H	Desert Vista	7-	5	2	1		-1.03	0.82
4/27	N	Brophy Prep	2-	12	-10	-5	––	0.00	-5.10
									0.00	-6.16

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
2/07	A	Pinnacle	13-	1	-2.00
4/27	N	Brophy Prep	2-	12	0.00
10-goal correction: -0.12

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	90.		Natl CCR Rank	619
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	90.55		Natl Power Rank	619
Natl SOS Rating	86.38		Natl SOS Rank	310
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.75		Natl Quality Win Rank	380
W-L Pct Rating	0.65		W-L Pct Rank	732
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	11-6		Ave Goal diff (all )	1.2
Wins/Losses (top 5)	4-2		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-0.2
Wins/Losses (top 10)	6-3		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	0.1
Wins/Losses (top 20)	11-3		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	2.8
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-4.3


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