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Colonial Forge Eagles (9-7)

Region: VA Comw

State: VA

Coach: Blair Penny

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/12	WOODBRIDGE (3-12)	VA Card	76.0		W	15-	2		0.000
3/19	POTOMAC-DUMFRIES (11-6)	VA Card	82.4	10	W	12-	4		0.075
3/21	at Brooke Point (7-9)	VA Comw	82.4	9	W	13-	9		0.200
3/28	STAFFORD (1-14)	VA Comw	73.9		W	12-	4		0.000
3/30	at Albemarle (14-7)	VA Comw	89.4	2	L	9-	11		-0.075
4/02	MOUNTAIN VIEW (5-10)	VA Comw	78.3		W	18-	8		0.025
4/05	at Culpeper HS (17-2)	VA Cedar	88.9	3	L	5-	9		-0.200
4/10	at Oakton (8-7)	VA Concord	92.1		L	2-	13		-0.050
4/12	ALBEMARLE (14-7)	VA Comw	89.4	2	L	6-	11		-0.150
4/20	at Mountain View (5-10)	VA Comw	78.3		W	13-	7		0.100
4/23	at North Stafford (17-3)	VA Comw	92.5	1	L	3-	18		-0.025
4/25	BROOKE POINT (7-9)	VA Comw	82.4	9	W	15-	7		0.100
5/02	at Stafford (1-14)	VA Comw	73.9		W	12-	4		0.000
5/04	NORTH STAFFORD (17-3)	VA Comw	92.5	1	L	8-	10		-0.125
5/12	STAFFORD (1-14)	VA Comw	73.9		W	17-	0		0.000
5/15	at Albemarle (14-7)	VA Comw	89.4	2	L	5-	16		-0.075
			83.3						-0.20

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/12	H	Woodbridge	15-	2	13	10	+	-1.69	2.84
3/19	H	Potomac-Dumfries	12-	4	8	7		-1.69	1.07
3/21	A	Brooke Point	13-	9	4	2		1.69	1.54
3/28	H	Stafford	12-	4	8	13	––	-1.69	-5.28
3/30	A	Albemarle	9-	11	-2	-7	++	1.69	5.07
4/02	H	Mountain View	18-	8	10	9		-1.69	0.94
4/05	A	Culpeper HS	5-	9	-4	-2	–	1.69	-2.28
4/10	A	Oakton	2-	13	-11	-8	–	1.44		-3.43
4/12	H	Albemarle	6-	11	-5	-4		-1.69	-1.31
4/20	A	Mountain View	13-	7	6	6		1.69	0.32
4/23	A	North Stafford	3-	18	-15	-9	–––	1.69	-6.29
4/25	H	Brooke Point	15-	7	8	6	+	-1.69	2.16
5/02	A	Stafford	12-	4	8	10		1.69	-1.90
5/04	H	North Stafford	8-	10	-2	-5	+	-1.69	3.33
5/12	H	Stafford	17-	0	17	13	+	-1.69	3.72
5/15	A	Albemarle	5-	16	-11	-7	–	1.69	-3.93
									0.00	-3.43

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/12	H	Woodbridge	15-	2	-2.84
4/02	H	Mountain View	18-	8	0.00
4/10	A	Oakton	2-	13	1.00
4/23	A	North Stafford	3-	18	5.00
5/12	H	Stafford	17-	0	-3.72
5/15	A	Albemarle	5-	16	1.00
10-goal correction: 0.03

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	86.		Natl CCR Rank	1117
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	86.02		Natl Power Rank	1117
Natl SOS Rating	75.99		Natl SOS Rank	1284
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.20		Natl Quality Win Rank	1666
W-L Pct Rating	0.56		W-L Pct Rank	1049
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	9-7		Ave Goal diff (all )	2.0
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-6		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-6.5
Wins/Losses (top 10)	3-6		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-2.1
Wins/Losses (top 20)	9-6		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	2.9
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	1.3


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