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Alexander Dawson Mustangs (9-6)

Region: CO Foothil

State: CO

Coach: Travis Aldrich

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/10	at Englewood (2-12)	CO Foothil	74.2		W	17-	1		0.000
3/14	MONARCH (11-7)	CO Foothil	87.6		W	7-	3		0.300
3/29	vs. Winchester Thurston # (15-2)	PA 2DSOUTH	89.0		W	10-	5		0.325
4/02	at Fort Collins Unified (15-4)	CO Foothil	97.9	2	L	1-	11		0.000
4/04	GREEN MOUNTAIN (10-5)	CO Foothil	86.8		L	3-	6		-0.250
4/06	STEAMBOAT SPRINGS (4-7)	CO Foothil	79.9		W	12-	0		0.100
4/09	SUMMIT (3-7)	CO Foothil	79.3		W	6-	5		0.125
4/11	at Golden (10-6)	CO Foothil	88.4		L	4-	9		-0.150
4/18	at Evergreen (5-9)	CO Foothil	80.1		W	5-	4		0.175
4/23	WHEAT RIDGE (9-6)	CO Foothil	85.2		W	6-	2		0.250
4/25	COLUMBINE (11-5)	CO Foothil	91.2	8	L	0-	8		-0.125
4/28	MOUNTAIN RANGE (2-12)	CO Foothil	76.9		W	16-	5		0.025
4/30	at Fairview (10-5)	CO Centenn	89.8		L	1-	9		-0.125
5/02	at Boulder (6-10)	CO Centenn	81.3		W	7-	5		0.175
5/05	at Cheyenne Mountain (12-4)	CO South	89.3		L	0-	7		-0.175
# Neutral site			86.7						0.65

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/10	A	Englewood	17-	1	16	14	+	0.59	2.04
3/14	H	Monarch	7-	3	4	-2	+++	-0.59	6.32
3/29	N	Winchester Thurston	10-	5	5	-3	+++	0.00		8.02
4/02	A	Fort Collins Unified	1-	11	-10	-11		0.59	0.87
4/04	H	Green Mountain	3-	6	-3	0	–	-0.59	-2.88
4/06	H	Steamboat Springs	12-	0	12	6	++	-0.59	5.82
4/09	H	Summit	6-	5	1	5	–	-0.59	-3.72
4/11	A	Golden	4-	9	-5	-4		0.59	-0.99
4/18	A	Evergreen	5-	4	1	3	–	0.59	-2.35
4/23	H	Wheat Ridge	6-	2	4	0	+	-0.59	3.72
4/25	H	Columbine	0-	8	-8	-5	–	-0.59	-3.38
4/28	H	Mountain Range	16-	5	11	9	+	-0.59	2.12
4/30	A	Fairview	1-	9	-8	-5	–	0.59	-2.90
5/02	A	Boulder	7-	5	2	3		0.59	-0.87
5/05	A	Cheyenne Mountain	0-	7	-7	-3	–	0.59	-3.78
									0.00	8.02

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/10	A	Englewood	17-	1	-2.04
4/02	A	Fort Collins Unified	1-	11	-0.87
4/06	H	Steamboat Springs	12-	0	-2.00
4/28	H	Mountain Range	16-	5	-1.00
10-goal correction: -0.39

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	87.		Natl CCR Rank	1023
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	85.97		Natl Power Rank	1023
Natl SOS Rating	82.81		Natl SOS Rank	579
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.65		Natl Quality Win Rank	474
W-L Pct Rating	0.60		W-L Pct Rank	881
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	9-6		Ave Goal diff (all )	1.0
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-1		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-10.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-9.0
Wins/Losses (top 20)	1-6		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-5.3
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-4.3


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