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Gunston Day Fighting Herons (4-11)

Region: MD MILL

State: MD

Coach: Ned Southworth

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/30	at Kent County (3-10)	MD 21 East	74.2		L	5-	8		-0.225
4/03	DELMARVA CHRISTIAN (8-9)	DE Indep	72.2		W	10-	3		0.150
4/05	at Sandy Springs Friends (6-6)	MD MILL	80.2		L	4-	8		-0.100
4/10	THE HEIGHTS (9-10)	MD MILL	84.0		L	2-	14		-0.075
4/12	at Worcester Prep (14-3)	MD Indep	90.5	5	L	3-	15		0.000
4/17	SALISBURY (8-7)	MD Indep	77.0		W	7-	6	ot	0.250
4/19	INDIAN CREEK SCHOOL (3-7)	MD MILL	72.9		W	14-	3		0.125
4/21	at Notre Dame Academy (18-2)	MD MILL	95.2	2	L	1-	20		0.000
4/24	at Calverton (9-9)	MD MILL	84.9		L	4-	11		0.000
4/26	at Sussex Tech (2-13)	DE Caphen	67.9		W	6-	2		0.100
4/28	vs. JM Bennett # (6-9)	MD 32 East	79.8		L	6-	10		-0.125
4/28	at Sts Peter & Paul (13-6)	MD B MIAA	87.4		L	7-	19		0.000
5/01	at Eleanor Roosevelt (2-6)	MD MILL	75.5		L	7-	12		-0.200
5/04	at Calverton (9-9)	MD MILL	84.9		L	0-	16		0.000
5/09	SALISBURY (8-7)	MD Indep	77.0		L	7-	8		-0.250
# Neutral site			80.6						-0.35

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/30	A	Kent County	5-	8	-3	-1	–	1.10		-2.39
4/03	H	DelMarva Christian	10-	3	7	4	+	-1.02		3.44
4/05	A	Sandy Springs Friends	4-	8	-4	-6	+	1.48	2.42
4/10	H	The Heights	2-	14	-12	-7	––	-1.48	-5.34
4/12	A	Worcester Prep	3-	15	-12	-14	+	1.48	2.30
4/17	H	Salisbury	7-	6	1	0		-1.48	1.06
4/19	H	Indian Creek School	14-	3	11	5	++	-1.48	5.52
4/21	A	Notre Dame Academy	1-	20	-19	-18		1.48	-0.58
4/24	A	Calverton	4-	11	-7	-11	+	1.48	3.66
4/26	A	Sussex Tech	6-	2	4	6		1.02		-1.85
4/28	N	JM Bennett	6-	10	-4	-5		0.00		1.08
4/28	A	Sts Peter & Paul	7-	19	-12	-14	+	1.46		2.12
5/01	A	Eleanor Roosevelt	7-	12	-5	-2	–	1.48	-2.77
5/04	A	Calverton	0-	16	-16	-11	––	1.48	-5.34
5/09	H	Salisbury	7-	8	-1	0		-1.48	-0.94
									0.00	2.39

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/10	H	The Heights	2-	14	2.00
4/12	A	Worcester Prep	3-	15	-2.30
4/19	H	Indian Creek School	14-	3	-1.00
4/21	A	Notre Dame Academy	1-	20	0.58
4/28	A	Sts Peter & Paul	7-	19	-2.12
5/04	A	Calverton	0-	16	5.34
10-goal correction: 0.17

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	75.		Natl CCR Rank	2143
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	74.74		Natl Power Rank	2143
Natl SOS Rating	71.51		Natl SOS Rank	1757
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.35		Natl Quality Win Rank	1986
W-L Pct Rating	0.27		W-L Pct Rank	2071
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	4-11		Ave Goal diff (all )	-4.8
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-15.5
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-15.5
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-6		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-11.7
Wins/Losses (last 3)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-7.3


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