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Hotchkiss Bearcats (10-3)

Conference: FND

Region: NE 1 West

State: CT

Coach: Chris Burchfield

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
4/06	vs. Lawrenceville # (17-1)	NJ Private	98.0		L	5-	6		-0.225
4/11	at Albany Academy (2-10)	NE 1 West	80.8		W	15-	0		0.000
4/18	at Canterbury (1-14)	NE 1 West	82.2		W	13-	2		0.000
4/21	BRUNSWICK SCHOOL (7-7)	NE 1 West	92.8	8	W	9-	8		0.200
4/25	KENT SCHOOL (4-12)	NE 1 West	86.2		W	15-	4		0.000
4/28	at Salisbury School (11-5)	NE 1 West	95.9	4	W	10-	4		0.275
5/02	at Avon Old Farms (12-3)	NE 1 West	97.0	2	W	11-	10	2ot	0.275
5/05	DEERFIELD (15-0)	NE 1 West	99.2	1	L	2-	8		-0.175
5/12	CHOATE (6-8)	NE 1 West	91.8	9	W	10-	4		0.150
5/17	TRINITY-PAWLING (9-8)	NE 1 West	91.4	10	W	10-	3		0.150
5/19	TAFT SCHOOL (3-10)	NE 1 West	88.1		W	8-	1		0.075
5/23	WESTMINSTER SCHOOL (10-4)	NE 1 West	95.4	6	W	10-	9		0.200
5/26	at Loomis Chaffee (11-5)	NE 1 West	95.9	5	L	6-	9		-0.225
# Neutral site			90.6						0.70

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
4/06	N	Lawrenceville	5-	6	-1	-1		0.00		0.26
4/11	A	Albany Academy	15-	0	15	18	–	1.15	-2.73
4/18	A	Canterbury	13-	2	11	15	–	1.15	-3.59
4/21	H	Brunswick School	9-	8	1	2		-1.15	-1.19
4/25	H	Kent School	15-	4	11	11		-1.15	-0.01
4/28	A	Salisbury School	10-	4	6	-1	+++	1.15	7.23
5/02	A	Avon Old Farms	11-	10	1	-1		1.15	1.82
5/05	H	Deerfield	2-	8	-6	-3	–	-1.15	-2.79
5/12	H	Choate	10-	4	6	4		-1.15	1.70
5/17	H	Trinity-Pawling	10-	3	7	4	+	-1.15	2.85
5/19	H	Taft School	8-	1	7	7		-1.15	-0.41
5/23	H	Westminster School	10-	9	1	2		-1.15	-0.87
5/26	A	Loomis Chaffee	6-	9	-3	-1	–	1.15	-2.02
									0.00	0.26

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/11	A	Albany Academy	15-	0	2.73
4/18	A	Canterbury	13-	2	3.59
4/25	H	Kent School	15-	4	0.01
10-goal correction: 0.49

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	193.		Natl CCR Rank	46
Natl Poll Vote	96.		Natl Poll Rank	37
Natl Power Rating	96.77		Natl Power Rank	64
Natl SOS Rating	91.57		Natl SOS Rank	86
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.70		Natl Quality Win Rank	436
W-L Pct Rating	0.77		W-L Pct Rank	341
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	10-3		Ave Goal diff (all )	4.3
Wins/Losses (top 5)	2-2		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-0.5
Wins/Losses (top 10)	6-2		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	1.6
Wins/Losses (top 20)	10-2		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	4.8
Wins/Losses (last 3)	2-1		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	1.7


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