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Elizabethtown Bears (1-12)

Region: PA LL04

State: PA

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/27	at Warwick (19-7)	PA LL04	88.2	5	L	1-	10		0.000
3/29	EPHRATA (7-12)	PA LL04	78.7		L	8-	10		-0.175
4/03	PALMYRA (10-9)	PA Mid 1	81.3		L	3-	6		-0.100
4/13	LANCASTER COU DAY (1-15)	PA LL04	72.5		W	7-	4		0.250
4/16	MANHEIM TOWNSHIP (26-1)	PA LL04	95.8	1	L	0-	19		0.000
4/18	at Lower Dauphin (11-6)	PA Mid 1	81.4		L	0-	13		0.000
4/23	PENN MANOR (10-9)	PA LL04	81.6		L	3-	12		-0.100
4/24	at Ephrata (7-12)	PA LL04	78.7		L	2-	13		-0.100
5/02	at Lampeter-Strasburg (14-8)	PA LL04	83.2	10	L	4-	21		0.000
5/04	at Hempfield (18-6)	PA LL04	92.1	2	L	1-	17		0.000
5/08	at Conestoga Valley (12-11)	PA LL04	83.4	9	L	1-	14		0.000
5/10	COCALICO (15-5)	PA LL04	85.1	7	L	1-	5		-0.100
5/15	HARRISBURG ACADEMY (5-10)	PA Mid 1	78.0		L	2-	5		-0.175
			84.2						-0.50

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/27	A	Warwick	1-	10	-9	-15	++	1.55	5.98
3/29	H	Ephrata	8-	10	-2	-3		-1.55	0.81
4/03	H	Palmyra	3-	6	-3	-6	+	-1.55	3.23
4/13	H	Lancaster Cou Day	7-	4	3	0	+	-1.55	2.85
4/16	H	Manheim Township	0-	19	-19	-19		-1.55	0.05
4/18	A	Lower Dauphin	0-	13	-13	-10	–	1.55	-2.88
4/23	H	Penn Manor	3-	12	-9	-6	–	-1.55	-3.15
4/24	A	Ephrata	2-	13	-11	-6	––	1.55	-5.10
5/02	A	Lampeter-Strasburg	4-	21	-17	-11	––	1.55	-5.97
5/04	A	Hempfield	1-	17	-16	-19	+	1.55	2.56
5/08	A	Conestoga Valley	1-	14	-13	-12		1.55	-0.67
5/10	H	Cocalico	1-	5	-4	-6		-1.55	1.93
5/15	H	Harrisburg Academy	2-	5	-3	-3		-1.55	0.36
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/16	H	Manheim Township	0-	19	-0.05
4/18	A	Lower Dauphin	0-	13	3.00
4/24	A	Ephrata	2-	13	1.00
5/02	A	Lampeter-Strasburg	4-	21	5.97
5/04	A	Hempfield	1-	17	-2.56
5/08	A	Conestoga Valley	1-	14	0.67
10-goal correction: 0.62

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	74.		Natl CCR Rank	2262
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	72.51		Natl Power Rank	2262
Natl SOS Rating	78.82		Natl SOS Rank	1017
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.50		Natl Quality Win Rank	2177
W-L Pct Rating	0.08		W-L Pct Rank	2486
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	1-12		Ave Goal diff (all )	-8.9
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-14.7
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-5		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-12.2
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-10		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-10.6
Wins/Losses (last 3)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-6.7


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