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Lexington Tates Creek Commodores (10-5)

Region: KY Div-1

State: KY

Coach: Andy Tarter

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/11	vs. Hamilton SouthEastern # (9-10)	IN Indep	80.0		W	6-	2		0.075
3/14	LEXINGTON HENRY CLAY (3-8)	KY Div-2	65.9		W	13-	2		0.000
3/18	at Oldham County (11-3)	KY Div-2	79.8	6	W	10-	4		0.075
3/21	KENTUCKY COUNTRY DAY (0-15)	KY Div-1	65.4		W	16-	1		0.000
3/24	CULVER ACADEMY (16-6)	IN Indep	92.9		L	7-	8	ot	-0.150
3/25	at Louisville Collegiate (8-6)	KY Div-1	84.0	5	L	5-	6		-0.250
3/27	at Louisville Ballard (3-10)	KY Div-1	76.4	9	W	16-	5		0.100
4/10	LEXINGTON DUNBAR (5-8)	KY Div-1	77.1	7	W	12-	3		0.025
4/18	at Lexington Sayre (5-10)	KY Div-1	73.2		W	15-	3		0.075
4/21	at DuPont Manual (4-9)	KY Div-1	73.8		W	15-	2		0.050
4/23	at Louisville Trinity (16-3)	KY Div-1	91.0	1	L	3-	9		-0.100
5/03	LOUISVILLE ST XAVIER (15-7)	KY Div-1	89.3	2	L	9-	16		-0.200
5/09	at Lexington Catholic (8-4)	KY Div-1	84.8	4	W	10-	4		0.250
5/14	DUPONT MANUAL (4-9)	KY Div-1	73.8		W	14-	5		0.000
5/16	vs. Louisville St Xavier # (15-7)	KY Div-1	89.3	2	L	9-	12		-0.150
# Neutral site			82.1						-0.20

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/11	N	Hamilton SouthEastern	6-	2	4	7	–	0.00		-2.63
3/14	H	Lexington Henry Clay	13-	2	11	18	–––	-1.81	-6.96
3/18	A	Oldham County	10-	4	6	7		1.81	-0.51
3/21	H	Kentucky Country Day	16-	1	15	18	–	-1.81	-2.79
3/24	H	Culver Academy	7-	8	-1	-4	+	-2.24		3.08
3/25	A	Louisville Collegiate	5-	6	-1	0		1.81	-1.37
3/27	A	Louisville Ballard	16-	5	11	6	++	1.81	5.32
4/10	H	Lexington Dunbar	12-	3	9	9		-1.81	-0.49
4/18	A	Lexington Sayre	15-	3	12	7	++	1.81	4.52
4/21	A	DuPont Manual	15-	2	13	8	++	1.81	4.60
4/23	A	Louisville Trinity	3-	9	-6	-6		1.81	-0.47
5/03	H	Louisville St Xavier	9-	16	-7	-2	––	-1.81	-5.14
5/09	A	Lexington Catholic	10-	4	6	0	++	1.81	5.64
5/14	H	DuPont Manual	14-	5	9	12	–	-1.81	-3.03
5/16	N	Louisville St Xavier	9-	12	-3	-4		0.00	0.67
									0.00	0.45

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/14	H	Lexington Henry Clay	13-	2	6.96
3/21	H	Kentucky Country Day	16-	1	2.79
3/27	A	Louisville Ballard	16-	5	-1.00
4/18	A	Lexington Sayre	15-	3	-2.00
4/21	A	DuPont Manual	15-	2	-3.00
10-goal correction: 0.25

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	87.		Natl CCR Rank	963
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	86.63		Natl Power Rank	963
Natl SOS Rating	74.12		Natl SOS Rank	1481
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.20		Natl Quality Win Rank	1684
W-L Pct Rating	0.67		W-L Pct Rank	651
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	10-5		Ave Goal diff (all )	5.2
Wins/Losses (top 5)	1-4		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-2.2
Wins/Losses (top 10)	4-4		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	1.9
Wins/Losses (top 20)	9-4		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	5.8
Wins/Losses (last 3)	2-1		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	4.0


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