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Mount Carmel Sun Devils (6-11)

Conference: D1

Region: CA North

State: CA

Coach: Nathan Williams

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/06	at Otay Ranch (10-8)	CA Metro	81.1		W	9-	3		0.225
3/14	at Torrey Pines (21-4)	CA North	95.9	1	L	0-	14		0.000
3/16	J SERRA CATHOLIC (13-4)	CA Trinity	89.2		L	2-	15		-0.125
3/21	WESTVIEW (11-8)	CA North	88.1	9	L	0-	14		0.000
3/26	at La Costa Canyon (15-8)	CA North	92.5	3	L	1-	17		0.000
3/28	at Carlsbad (6-11)	CA North	81.7		L	7-	11		-0.275
3/30	SAN MARCOS (6-8)	CA North	82.2		W	5-	4		0.200
4/04	RANCHO BERNARDO (11-8)	CA North	88.1	8	L	3-	13		0.000
4/06	at Canyon Crest (12-8)	CA Coastal	87.0		L	1-	5		-0.075
4/09	SERRA (3-13)	CA City	80.2		W	6-	5		0.175
4/23	at San Marcos (6-8)	CA North	82.2		W	7-	6		0.225
4/25	POWAY (14-7)	CA North	91.6	4	L	1-	15		0.000
5/02	FALLBROOK (5-14)	CA North	79.8		W	10-	6		0.175
5/07	at Poway (14-7)	CA North	91.6	4	L	0-	16		0.000
5/11	at Rancho Bernardo (11-8)	CA North	88.1	8	L	4-	13		0.000
5/14	CARLSBAD (6-11)	CA North	81.7		L	4-	6		-0.300
5/16	at Fallbrook (5-14)	CA North	79.8		W	10-	4		0.200
			85.0						0.42

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/06	A	Otay Ranch	9-	3	6	1	++	0.53	4.51
3/14	A	Torrey Pines	0-	14	-14	-17	+	0.53	2.82
3/16	H	J Serra Catholic	2-	15	-13	-5	–––	-0.80		-7.74
3/21	H	Westview	0-	14	-14	-10	–	-0.53	-3.98
3/26	A	La Costa Canyon	1-	17	-16	-16		0.53	-0.46
3/28	A	Carlsbad	7-	11	-4	1	––	0.53	-4.84
3/30	H	San Marcos	5-	4	1	2		-0.53	-0.84
4/04	H	Rancho Bernardo	3-	13	-10	-10		-0.53	-0.37
4/06	A	Canyon Crest	1-	5	-4	-7	+	0.53	2.83
4/09	H	Serra	6-	5	1	3		-0.53	-1.51
4/23	A	San Marcos	7-	6	1	1		0.53	0.21
4/25	H	Poway	1-	15	-14	-14		-0.53	0.11
5/02	H	Fallbrook	10-	6	4	3		-0.53	0.75
5/07	A	Poway	0-	16	-16	-15		0.53	-0.84
5/11	A	Rancho Bernardo	4-	13	-9	-11		0.53	1.68
5/14	H	Carlsbad	4-	6	-2	2	–	-0.53	-3.89
5/16	A	Fallbrook	10-	4	6	2	+	0.53	3.80
									0.00	-7.74

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/14	A	Torrey Pines	0-	14	-2.82
3/16	H	J Serra Catholic	2-	15	3.00
3/21	H	Westview	0-	14	4.00
3/26	A	La Costa Canyon	1-	17	0.46
4/04	H	Rancho Bernardo	3-	13	0.00
4/25	H	Poway	1-	15	-0.11
5/07	A	Poway	0-	16	0.84
10-goal correction: 0.32

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	84.		Natl CCR Rank	1420
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	83.18		Natl Power Rank	1420
Natl SOS Rating	79.72		Natl SOS Rank	928
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.42		Natl Quality Win Rank	642
W-L Pct Rating	0.35		W-L Pct Rank	1806
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	6-11		Ave Goal diff (all )	-5.7
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-4		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-15.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-8		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-12.1
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-8		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-12.1
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-1.7


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