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Natick Redmen (10-11)

Conference: Bay State

Region: MA 2

State: MA

Coach: Nathan Kittler

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/31	WESTWOOD (6-14)	MA 3	84.2		W	9-	5		0.175
4/02	OLIVER AMES (6-12)	MA 2	84.1		W	9-	3		0.150
4/05	at Norwood (7-13)	MA 2	85.9		W	6-	4		0.275
4/10	WEYMOUTH (15-5)	MA 1	91.2		L	6-	7	ot	-0.150
4/13	DEDHAM (0-16)	MA 3	75.2		W	15-	4		0.000
4/19	MEDWAY (11-10)	MA 3	87.9		L	10-	14		-0.300
4/21	FOXBOROUGH (3-13)	MA 2	82.1		W	4-	3	ot	0.150
4/23	FRAMINGHAM (7-10)	MA 1	87.5		W	10-	8		0.250
4/25	at Wellesley (18-5)	MA 2	93.4	8	L	1-	12		0.000
4/27	at Needham (17-5)	MA 1	93.3		L	3-	14		0.000
5/01	MILTON (7-13)	MA 2	86.6		W	14-	10		0.225
5/04	at Dedham (0-16)	MA 3	75.2		W	17-	5		0.050
5/07	NORWOOD (7-13)	MA 2	85.9		W	11-	8		0.225
5/09	at Newton North (6-13)	MA 1	86.7		L	8-	11		-0.200
5/10	WALPOLE (16-5)	MA 2	92.3		L	6-	14		-0.075
5/15	BROOKLINE (3-17)	MA 1	82.4		W	11-	4		0.125
5/17	WELLESLEY (18-5)	MA 2	93.4	8	L	4-	15		-0.050
5/22	at Braintree (8-10)	MA 1	88.2		L	3-	5		-0.175
5/23	at Milton (7-13)	MA 2	86.6		L	7-	11		-0.225
5/24	at Walpole (16-5)	MA 2	92.3		L	2-	16		0.000
5/29	at Walpole (16-5)	MA 2	92.3		L	4-	15		0.000
			85.7						0.45

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/31	H	Westwood	9-	5	4	3		-1.16	1.13
4/02	H	Oliver Ames	9-	3	6	4		-1.16	1.68
4/05	A	Norwood	6-	4	2	-1	+	1.16	2.89
4/10	H	Weymouth	6-	7	-1	-4	+	-1.16	3.39
4/13	H	Dedham	15-	4	11	10		-1.16	0.84
4/19	H	Medway	10-	14	-4	2	––	-1.16	-5.66
4/21	H	Foxborough	4-	3	1	4	–	-1.16	-2.85
4/23	H	Framingham	10-	8	2	0		-1.16	1.65
4/25	A	Wellesley	1-	12	-11	-10		1.16	-1.14
4/27	A	Needham	3-	14	-11	-11		1.16	-0.39
5/01	H	Milton	14-	10	4	1	+	-1.16	2.56
5/04	A	Dedham	17-	5	12	8	++	1.16	4.16
5/07	H	Norwood	11-	8	3	1		-1.16	1.58
5/09	A	Newton North	8-	11	-3	-2		1.16	-0.60
5/10	H	Walpole	6-	14	-8	-7		-1.16	-0.63
5/15	H	Brookline	11-	4	7	5	+	-1.16	2.42
5/17	H	Wellesley	4-	15	-11	-8	–	-1.16	-3.46
5/22	A	Braintree	3-	5	-2	-3		1.16	1.17
5/23	A	Milton	7-	11	-4	-1	–	1.16	-3.12
5/24	A	Walpole	2-	16	-14	-10	––	1.16	-4.31
5/29	A	Walpole	4-	15	-11	-10		1.16	-1.31
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/13	H	Dedham	15-	4	-0.84
4/25	A	Wellesley	1-	12	1.00
4/27	A	Needham	3-	14	0.39
5/04	A	Dedham	17-	5	-2.00
5/17	H	Wellesley	4-	15	1.00
5/24	A	Walpole	2-	16	4.00
5/29	A	Walpole	4-	15	1.00
10-goal correction: 0.22

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	88.		Natl CCR Rank	930
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	87.84		Natl Power Rank	930
Natl SOS Rating	81.02		Natl SOS Rank	780
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.45		Natl Quality Win Rank	653
W-L Pct Rating	0.48		W-L Pct Rank	1360
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	10-11		Ave Goal diff (all )	-1.3
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-0		Ave Goal diff (top 5)
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-11.0
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-6		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-11.0
Wins/Losses (last 3)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-9.7


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