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Poolesville Falcons (5-11)

Region: MD 21 West

State: MD

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/22	WOOTTON (18-1)	MD 43 West	92.3	6	L	3-	13		0.000
3/24	at Damascus (7-9)	MD 43 North	79.1		L	10-	15		-0.075
3/27	WHEATON (4-9)	MD 32 West	65.3		W	14-	1		0.075
3/29	at Rockville (7-7)	MD 32 West	72.4		W	12-	8		0.275
4/04	DAMASCUS (7-9)	MD 43 North	79.1		L	5-	12		-0.125
4/04	GAITHERSBURG (14-3)	MD 43 North	84.1		L	3-	14		-0.075
4/13	CLARKSBURG (2-11)	MD 32 West	62.7		W	18-	4		0.000
4/17	KENNEDY (8-6)	MD 32 West	73.9		W	15-	9		0.225
4/19	BETHESDA/CHEVY CHASE (7-6)	MD 43 West	80.9		L	6-	15		-0.050
4/25	at Seneca Valley (13-2)	MD 32 West	84.7		L	4-	20		0.000
4/27	at Paint Branch (7-6)	MD 43 West	78.4		L	1-	17		-0.100
5/01	WALTER JOHNSON (10-6)	MD 43 West	84.9		L	1-	19		0.000
5/04	at Quince Orchard (7-7)	MD 43 North	80.1		L	8-	12		-0.075
5/07	at NorthWest (3-10)	MD 43 North	72.3		L	6-	11		-0.250
5/10	at South Hagerstown (0-12)	MD 21 West	60.9		W	15-	1		0.025
5/12	at Century (14-3)	MD 21 West	90.6		L	1-	20		0.000
			77.0						-0.15

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/22	H	Wootton	3-	13	-10	-16	+++	-0.72	6.29
3/24	A	Damascus	10-	15	-5	-7		0.72	1.72
3/27	H	Wheaton	14-	1	13	7	++	-0.72	5.52
3/29	A	Rockville	12-	8	4	-1	++	0.72	5.23
4/04	H	Damascus	5-	12	-7	-5		-0.72	-1.72
4/04	H	Gaithersburg	3-	14	-11	-7	–	-0.72	-3.59
4/13	H	Clarksburg	18-	4	14	10	+	-0.72	3.51
4/17	H	Kennedy	15-	9	6	1	++	-0.72	5.13
4/19	H	Bethesda/Chevy Chase	6-	15	-9	-8		-0.72	-1.11
4/25	A	Seneca Valley	4-	20	-16	-10	–––	0.72	-6.38
4/27	A	Paint Branch	1-	17	-16	-6	–––	0.72	-9.64
5/01	H	Walter Johnson	1-	19	-18	-11	–––	-0.72	-7.19
5/04	A	Quince Orchard	8-	12	-4	-7	+	0.72	3.42
5/07	A	NorthWest	6-	11	-5	0	––	0.72	-4.51
5/10	A	South Hagerstown	15-	1	14	9	++	0.72	5.09
5/12	A	Century	1-	20	-19	-17		0.72	-1.79
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/22	H	Wootton	3-	13	-6.29
3/27	H	Wheaton	14-	1	-3.00
4/04	H	Gaithersburg	3-	14	1.00
4/13	H	Clarksburg	18-	4	-3.51
4/25	A	Seneca Valley	4-	20	6.00
4/27	A	Paint Branch	1-	17	6.00
5/01	H	Walter Johnson	1-	19	7.19
5/10	A	South Hagerstown	15-	1	-4.00
5/12	A	Century	1-	20	1.79
10-goal correction: 0.32

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	73.		Natl CCR Rank	2339
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	72.56		Natl Power Rank	2339
Natl SOS Rating	65.50		Natl SOS Rank	2225
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.15		Natl Quality Win Rank	1601
W-L Pct Rating	0.31		W-L Pct Rank	1931
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	5-11		Ave Goal diff (all )	-4.3
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-0		Ave Goal diff (top 5)
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-1		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-10.0
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-14.5
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-3.3


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