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Winchester Thurston Bears (15-2)

Region: PA 2DSOUTH

State: PA

Coach: Darrell Schmitt

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/29	vs. Alexander Dawson # (9-6)	CO Foothil	86.0		L	5-	10		-0.375
4/03	at Fairmont (4-13)	PA 2DSOUTH	70.8		W	15-	4		0.000
4/05	at Shaler Area (7-9)	PA 2DNORTH	78.9		W	18-	5		0.075
4/09	at Fox Chapel (9-6)	PA 2DSOUTH	87.8		W	9-	5		0.325
4/12	CHARTIERS VALLEY (4-11)	PA 2DSOUTH	77.9		W	6-	4		0.050
4/14	at Kiski Prep (14-8)	PA 2DNORTH	86.3		W	8-	6		0.275
4/18	at University (12-7)	PA 2DSOUTH	83.0		W	15-	10		0.125
4/21	at Quaker Valley (6-7)	PA 2DSOUTH	81.8		W	9-	6		0.175
4/28	CANON-MCMILLAN (6-7)	PA 2DSOUTH	82.1		W	16-	3		0.100
5/01	BALDWIN (7-11)	PA 2DSOUTH	80.5		W	11-	4		0.075
5/04	MORGANTOWN (7-8)	PA 2DSOUTH	79.0		W	8-	0		0.025
5/06	GREENSBURG CATH CENT (12-5)	PA 2DSOUTH	90.2	10	L	3-	17		-0.225
5/09	BUTLER AREA (8-10)	PA 2DNORTH	79.8		W	10-	6		0.075
5/12	TAYLOR ALLDERDICE (3-13)	PA 2DNORTH	72.9		W	11-	2		0.000
5/22	FOX CHAPEL (9-6)	PA 2DSOUTH	87.8		W	5-	1		0.250
5/30	vs. Greensburg Cath Cent # (12-5)	PA 2DSOUTH	90.2	10	W	8-	7		0.300
6/02	vs. Kiski Prep # (14-8)	PA 2DNORTH	86.3		W	8-	7		1.225
# Neutral site			80.5						2.47

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/29	N	Alexander Dawson	5-	10	-5	5	–––	0.00		-9.93
4/03	A	Fairmont	15-	4	11	14	–	1.47	-2.54
4/05	A	Shaler Area	18-	5	13	7	+++	1.47	6.40
4/09	A	Fox Chapel	9-	5	4	-3	+++	1.47	6.85
4/12	H	Chartiers Valley	6-	4	2	8	––	-1.47	-5.93
4/14	A	Kiski Prep	8-	6	2	-1	+	1.47	2.51
4/18	A	University	15-	10	5	5		1.47	0.02
4/21	A	Quaker Valley	9-	6	3	3		1.47	0.20
4/28	H	Canon-McMillan	16-	3	13	6	+++	-1.47	6.80
5/01	H	Baldwin	11-	4	7	7		-1.47	0.19
5/04	H	Morgantown	8-	0	8	9		-1.47	-0.53
5/06	H	Greensburg Cath Cent	3-	17	-14	-1	–––	-1.47	13.19
5/09	H	Butler Area	10-	6	4	7	–	-1.47	-3.45
5/12	H	Taylor Allderdice	11-	2	9	14	––	-1.47	-4.54
5/22	H	Fox Chapel	5-	1	4	0	+	-1.47	3.90
5/30	N	Greensburg Cath Cent	8-	7	1	-2	+	0.00	3.29
6/02	N	Kiski Prep	8-	7	1	1		0.00	0.03
									0.00	-9.93

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/03	A	Fairmont	15-	4	2.54
4/05	A	Shaler Area	18-	5	-3.00
4/28	H	Canon-McMillan	16-	3	-3.00
5/06	H	Greensburg Cath Cent	3-	17	4.00
10-goal correction: 0.03

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	89.		Natl CCR Rank	763
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	90.90		Natl Power Rank	763
Natl SOS Rating	70.85		Natl SOS Rank	1829
Natl Quality Win Rating	2.47		Natl Quality Win Rank	11
W-L Pct Rating	0.88		W-L Pct Rank	99
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	15-2		Ave Goal diff (all )	4.0
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-0		Ave Goal diff (top 5)
Wins/Losses (top 10)	1-1		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-6.5
Wins/Losses (top 20)	7-1		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	1.8
Wins/Losses (last 3)	3-0		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	2.0


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