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Western Alamance Warriors (6-12)

Region: NC 3A/2A

State: NC

Coach: Steve Bailey

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/06	at East Chapel Hill (17-5)	NC 4A	92.3	5	L	4-	17		0.000
3/10	vs. Freedom-Morganton # (4-9)	NC 4A	74.7		W	11-	5		0.125
3/13	at Western Guilford (19-0)	NC 3A/2A	94.6	2	L	3-	10		0.000
3/20	at Eastern Guilford (1-18)	NC 3A/2A	68.4		W	13-	0		0.000
3/21	DURHAM JORDAN (11-9)	NC 4A	86.3		L	5-	12		-0.125
3/23	at NorthEast Guilford (0-9)	NC 3A/2A	67.3		W	18-	2		0.000
3/27	GREENSBORO PAGE (16-4)	NC 4A	91.3	7	L	5-	8		-0.075
3/30	SOUTHEAST GUILFORD (11-6)	NC 3A/2A	87.3		L	4-	10		-0.125
4/02	at Northern Durham (5-12)	NC 4A	76.5		W	9-	8	ot	0.200
4/04	DURHAM RIVERSIDE (11-8)	NC 4A	88.0		L	0-	12		-0.100
4/18	at Cedar Ridge (9-7)	NC 3A/2A	80.4		W	8-	5		0.250
4/20	WESTERN GUILFORD (19-0)	NC 3A/2A	94.6	2	L	4-	12		-0.025
4/23	at Ragsdale-Jamestown (10-7)	NC 3A/2A	82.9		L	7-	8	2ot	-0.200
4/24	EASTERN GUILFORD (1-18)	NC 3A/2A	68.4		W	14-	1		0.000
4/27	at SouthEast Guilford (11-6)	NC 3A/2A	87.3		L	4-	10		-0.100
5/01	at Greensboro Grimsley (10-8)	NC 4A	85.2		L	8-	14		-0.125
5/03	at Cardinal Gibbons (17-4)	NC 3A/2A	90.9	8	L	3-	12		-0.025
5/11	at Western Guilford (19-0)	NC 3A/2A	94.6	2	L	2-	17		0.000
# Neutral site			84.9						-0.33

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/06	A	East Chapel Hill	4-	17	-13	-10	–	0.74	-3.01
3/10	N	Freedom-Morganton	11-	5	6	5		0.00	0.59
3/13	A	Western Guilford	3-	10	-7	-10	+	0.74	3.26
3/20	A	Eastern Guilford	13-	0	13	11		0.74	1.71
3/21	H	Durham Jordan	5-	12	-7	-5	–	-0.74	-2.44
3/23	A	NorthEast Guilford	18-	2	16	11	++	0.74	4.99
3/27	H	Greensboro Page	5-	8	-3	-7	++	-0.74	4.11
3/30	H	SouthEast Guilford	4-	10	-6	-5		-0.74	-1.04
4/02	A	Northern Durham	9-	8	1	2		0.74	-1.27
4/04	H	Durham Riverside	0-	12	-12	-6	––	-0.74	-5.67
4/18	A	Cedar Ridge	8-	5	3	0	+	0.74	2.92
4/20	H	Western Guilford	4-	12	-8	-9		-0.74	0.78
4/23	A	Ragsdale-Jamestown	7-	8	-1	-2		0.74	0.74
4/24	H	Eastern Guilford	14-	1	13	13		-0.74	0.24
4/27	A	SouthEast Guilford	4-	10	-6	-6		0.74	0.44
5/01	A	Greensboro Grimsley	8-	14	-6	-5		0.74	-1.23
5/03	A	Cardinal Gibbons	3-	12	-9	-9		0.74	-0.37
5/11	A	Western Guilford	2-	17	-15	-10	––	0.74	-4.74
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/06	A	East Chapel Hill	4-	17	3.00
3/20	A	Eastern Guilford	13-	0	-1.71
3/23	A	NorthEast Guilford	18-	2	-4.99
4/04	H	Durham Riverside	0-	12	2.00
4/24	H	Eastern Guilford	14-	1	-0.24
5/11	A	Western Guilford	2-	17	5.00
10-goal correction: 0.17

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	80.		Natl CCR Rank	1735
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	79.77		Natl Power Rank	1735
Natl SOS Rating	79.89		Natl SOS Rank	911
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.33		Natl Quality Win Rank	1920
W-L Pct Rating	0.33		W-L Pct Rank	1882
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	6-12		Ave Goal diff (all )	-2.3
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-4		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-10.8
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-7		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-9.6
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-11		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-8.4
Wins/Losses (last 3)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-10.0


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