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Winters Mill Falcons (19-0)

Region: MD 21 West

State: MD

Coach: Sal Picataggi

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/22	at Glenelg HS (15-3)	MD 32 South	92.3	8	W	14-	8		0.175
3/29	CENTURY (14-3)	MD 21 West	90.6		W	10-	7		0.125
4/04	WESTMINSTER (12-6)	MD 43 North	89.1		W	11-	6		0.075
4/07	vs. Catonsville # (13-4)	MD 32 North	91.5	10	W	6-	3		0.175
4/07	at Friends (0-13)	MD A MIAA	82.4		W	7-	4		0.000
4/10	at South Carroll (7-8)	MD 21 West	85.2		W	14-	1		0.050
4/13	at North Carroll (7-9)	MD 43 North	86.0		W	9-	5		0.125
4/19	at Liberty (6-10)	MD 21 West	83.1		W	12-	6		0.050
4/21	URBANA (10-5)	MD 32 West	90.2		W	13-	5		0.125
4/24	at Walkersville (12-2)	MD 32 West	90.3		W	19-	12		0.150
4/26	FREDERICK (5-10)	MD 21 West	77.2		W	19-	2		0.000
4/27	OLD MILL (10-5)	MD 43 East	90.1		W	14-	13		0.100
5/03	at Francis Scott Key (4-12)	MD 21 West	82.0		W	15-	2		0.025
5/07	MARRIOTT'S RIDGE (6-12)	MD 21 North	80.2		W	13-	0		0.000
5/12	LIBERTY (6-10)	MD 21 West	83.1		W	11-	2		0.000
5/14	SOUTH CARROLL (7-8)	MD 21 West	85.2		W	16-	3		0.000
5/16	CENTURY (14-3)	MD 21 West	90.6		W	12-	11		0.125
5/18	vs. Sparrows Point # (16-1)	MD 21 South	85.7		W	12-	5		0.000
5/22	vs. Parkside # (17-1)	MD 21 East	92.3	7	W	7-	6	ot	1.175
# Neutral site			85.8						2.47

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/22	A	Glenelg HS	14-	8	6	3	+	0.72	3.35
3/29	H	Century	10-	7	3	5		-0.72	-1.74
4/04	H	Westminster	11-	6	5	7		-0.72	-1.53
4/07	N	Catonsville	6-	3	3	3		0.00	-0.03
4/07	A	Friends	7-	4	3	12	–––	1.03		-8.96
4/10	A	South Carroll	14-	1	13	8	++	0.72	4.77
4/13	A	North Carroll	9-	5	4	5		0.72	-1.25
4/19	A	Liberty	12-	6	6	8	–	0.72	-2.36
4/21	H	Urbana	13-	5	8	5	+	-0.72	2.99
4/24	A	Walkersville	19-	12	7	4	+	0.72	3.44
4/26	H	Frederick	19-	2	17	16		-0.72	1.09
4/27	H	Old Mill	14-	13	1	6	––	-0.72	-4.56
5/03	A	Francis Scott Key	15-	2	13	9	++	0.72	4.03
5/07	H	Marriott's Ridge	13-	0	13	13		-0.72	-0.47
5/12	H	Liberty	11-	2	9	10		-0.72	-0.81
5/14	H	South Carroll	16-	3	13	10	+	-0.72	3.32
5/16	H	Century	12-	11	1	5	–	-0.72	-3.74
5/18	N	Sparrows Point	12-	5	7	11	––	0.00	-4.42
5/22	N	Parkside	7-	6	1	3	–	0.00	-2.09
									0.00	-8.96

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/10	A	South Carroll	14-	1	-3.00
4/26	H	Frederick	19-	2	-1.09
5/03	A	Francis Scott Key	15-	2	-3.00
5/07	H	Marriott's Ridge	13-	0	0.47
5/14	H	South Carroll	16-	3	-3.32
10-goal correction: -0.52

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	94.		Natl CCR Rank	213
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	95.44		Natl Power Rank	213
Natl SOS Rating	81.15		Natl SOS Rank	762
Natl Quality Win Rating	2.47		Natl Quality Win Rank	13
W-L Pct Rating	1.00		W-L Pct Rank	7
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	19-0		Ave Goal diff (all )	7.0
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-0		Ave Goal diff (top 5)
Wins/Losses (top 10)	2-0		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	3.5
Wins/Losses (top 20)	8-0		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	3.8
Wins/Losses (last 3)	3-0		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	3.0


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