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Warwick Warriors (19-7)

Region: PA LL04

State: PA

Coach: Edgar Lobley

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/23	vs. Upper St Clair # (5-9)	PA 1DSOUTH	88.9		W	9-	7		0.275
3/24	at Downingtown West (16-6)	PA Suburb	95.0		L	3-	15		-0.050
3/27	ELIZABETHTOWN (1-12)	PA LL04	72.5		W	10-	1		0.000
3/29	at Lancaster Cou Day (1-15)	PA LL04	72.5		W	16-	4		0.000
3/31	at Parkland (11-5)	PA PVLL-LV	90.0		W	13-	9		0.325
4/03	at Red Lion (8-10)	PA York 1	78.7		W	18-	9		0.075
4/05	CENTRAL DAUPHIN (4-12)	PA Mid 1	76.6		W	13-	2		0.000
4/10	LAMPETER-STRASBURG (14-8)	PA LL04	83.2	10	W	13-	2		0.125
4/12	at Penn Manor (10-9)	PA LL04	81.6		W	12-	6		0.150
4/14	COCALICO (15-5)	PA LL04	85.1	7	W	14-	9		0.050
4/17	at Cumberland Valley (15-4)	PA Mid 1	88.8	4	L	9-	10	ot	-0.200
4/19	HEMPFIELD (18-6)	PA LL04	92.1	2	L	2-	7		-0.200
4/21	SOUTH-WESTERN (10-8)	PA York 1	80.4		W	12-	1		0.075
4/24	CONESTOGA VALLEY (12-11)	PA LL04	83.4	9	W	10-	9		0.150
4/26	CENTRAL DAUPHIN EAST (4-12)	PA Mid 1	75.2		W	14-	5		0.000
4/28	SUSQUEHANNOCK (16-0)	PA York 1	89.5	3	L	11-	13		-0.300
5/01	at Ephrata (7-12)	PA LL04	78.7		W	12-	4		0.050
5/03	at Manheim Township (26-1)	PA LL04	95.8	1	L	7-	16		-0.025
5/08	at Lower Dauphin (11-6)	PA Mid 1	81.4		W	19-	7		0.175
5/10	HERSHEY (12-6)	PA Mid 1	83.7	8	W	6-	3		0.125
5/14	LAMPETER-STRASBURG (14-8)	PA LL04	83.2	10	W	12-	6		0.125
5/17	at Hempfield (18-6)	PA LL04	92.1	2	L	5-	12		-0.125
5/22	at Red Lion (8-10)	PA York 1	78.7		W	7-	5		0.075
5/25	at Carlisle (13-5)	PA Mid 1	87.1	6	W	4-	3		0.275
5/30	at Cumberland Valley (15-4)	PA Mid 1	88.8	4	W	8-	5		0.300
6/02	vs. Manheim Township # (26-1)	PA LL04	95.8	1	L	7-	16		-0.075
# Neutral site			85.4						1.38

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/23	N	Upper St Clair	9-	7	2	-1	+	0.00		2.76
3/24	A	Downingtown West	3-	15	-12	-8	–	1.42		-3.77
3/27	H	Elizabethtown	10-	1	9	15	––	-1.55	-5.98
3/29	A	Lancaster Cou Day	16-	4	12	10		1.55	1.51
3/31	A	Parkland	13-	9	4	-3	+++	1.42		7.24
4/03	A	Red Lion	18-	9	9	7	+	1.55	2.02
4/05	H	Central Dauphin	13-	2	11	10		-1.55	0.76
4/10	H	Lampeter-Strasburg	13-	2	11	5	++	-1.55	5.50
4/12	A	Penn Manor	12-	6	6	4		1.55	1.51
4/14	H	Cocalico	14-	9	5	8	–	-1.55	-2.50
4/17	A	Cumberland Valley	9-	10	-1	-2		1.55	1.46
4/19	H	Hempfield	2-	7	-5	-2	–	-1.55	-2.97
4/21	H	South-Western	12-	1	11	7	++	-1.55	4.20
4/24	H	Conestoga Valley	10-	9	1	4	–	-1.55	-3.21
4/26	H	Central Dauphin East	14-	5	9	13	–	-1.55	-3.97
4/28	H	Susquehannock	11-	13	-2	2	–	-1.55	-3.93
5/01	A	Ephrata	12-	4	8	8		1.55	0.47
5/03	A	Manheim Township	7-	16	-9	-9		1.55	-0.29
5/08	A	Lower Dauphin	19-	7	12	3	+++	1.55	8.68
5/10	H	Hershey	6-	3	3	5	–	-1.55	-2.31
5/14	H	Lampeter-Strasburg	12-	6	6	5		-1.55	0.50
5/17	A	Hempfield	5-	12	-7	-5		1.55	-1.88
5/22	A	Red Lion	7-	5	2	7	––	1.55	-4.98
5/25	A	Carlisle	4-	3	1	-1		1.55	1.77
5/30	A	Cumberland Valley	8-	5	3	-2	++	1.55	5.46
6/02	N	Manheim Township	7-	16	-9	-7		0.00	-1.83
									0.00	6.23

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/24	A	Downingtown West	3-	15	2.00
3/29	A	Lancaster Cou Day	16-	4	-1.51
4/05	H	Central Dauphin	13-	2	-0.76
4/10	H	Lampeter-Strasburg	13-	2	-1.00
4/21	H	South-Western	12-	1	-1.00
5/08	A	Lower Dauphin	19-	7	-2.00
10-goal correction: -0.16

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	88.		Natl CCR Rank	833
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	88.19		Natl Power Rank	833
Natl SOS Rating	80.92		Natl SOS Rank	795
Natl Quality Win Rating	1.38		Natl Quality Win Rank	118
W-L Pct Rating	0.73		W-L Pct Rank	478
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	19-7		Ave Goal diff (all )	3.1
Wins/Losses (top 5)	1-6		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-4.3
Wins/Losses (top 10)	5-6		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-1.8
Wins/Losses (top 20)	12-6		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	2.1
Wins/Losses (last 3)	2-1		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-1.7


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