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Herndon Hornets (6-6)

Region: VA Cncrd

State: VA

Coach: Lindsay Welch

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/13	at South Lakes (2-9)	VA Lbrty	68.5		W	14-	3		0.050
3/15	at Thomas Jefferson S&T (5-8)	VA Lbrty	71.9		W	9-	8		0.200
3/23	YORKTOWN, VA (16-3)	VA Natl	82.4	10	L	6-	13		-0.175
3/29	FAIRFAX (1-9)	VA Cncrd	69.9		W	10-	3		0.100
3/31	at Bluffton (7-3)	SC SCLL	72.4		W	21-	9		0.200
4/13	at Chantilly (13-5)	VA Cncrd	83.7	7	L	6-	13		-0.050
4/17	at Washington-Lee (4-10)	VA Natl	69.4		W	13-	8		0.050
4/19	ROBINSON SECONDARY (11-7)	VA Cncrd	83.5	8	L	9-	16		-0.100
4/23	WESTFIELD, VA (7-7)	VA Cncrd	78.1		L	6-	11		-0.200
4/27	at Oakton (17-1)	VA Cncrd	91.8	1	L	3-	21		0.000
5/01	at Centreville (5-7)	VA Cncrd	72.8		W	16-	5		0.225
5/07	at Westfield, VA (7-7)	VA Cncrd	78.1		L	7-	10		-0.150
			79.5						0.15

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/13	A	South Lakes	14-	3	11	8	+	1.07	3.24
3/15	A	Thomas Jefferson S&T	9-	8	1	2		1.07	-0.89
3/23	H	Yorktown, VA	6-	13	-7	-3	–	-1.07	-3.88
3/29	H	Fairfax	10-	3	7	6		-1.07	1.16
3/31	A	Bluffton	21-	9	12	2	+++	0.54		9.74
4/13	A	Chantilly	6-	13	-7	-8		1.07	0.60
4/17	A	Washington-Lee	13-	8	5	8	–	1.07	-2.70
4/19	H	Robinson Secondary	9-	16	-7	-6		-1.07	-1.15
4/23	H	Westfield, VA	6-	11	-5	-2	–	-1.07	-3.14
4/27	A	Oakton	3-	21	-18	-14	––	1.07	-4.20
5/01	A	Centreville	16-	5	11	1	+++	1.07	9.95
5/07	A	Westfield, VA	7-	10	-3	-4		1.07	1.00
									0.00	9.74

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/13	A	South Lakes	14-	3	-1.00
3/31	A	Bluffton	21-	9	-2.00
4/27	A	Oakton	3-	21	4.20
5/01	A	Centreville	16-	5	-1.00
10-goal correction: 0.02

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	75.		Natl CCR Rank	792
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	75.19		Natl Power Rank	792
Natl SOS Rating	70.83		Natl SOS Rank	379
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.15		Natl Quality Win Rank	726
W-L Pct Rating	0.50		W-L Pct Rank	973
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	6-6		Ave Goal diff (all )	0.0
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-1		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-18.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-4		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-9.8
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-6		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-7.8
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-3.3


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