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2009
2008
2007
2006
2005

Lower Dauphin Falcons (5-9)

Region: PA Indep

State: PA

Coach: Megan Zeller

Team Page Links: • 2009 • 2008 • 2007 • 2006 • 2005 •

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Rank	Score				COR
3/26	CENTRAL DAUPHIN (5-10)	PA Indep	76.6		L	5-	11		-0.175
3/28	at Carlisle (8-8)	PA Indep	77.5		L	8-	11		-0.050
3/29	at Ephrata (2-12)	PA LLL	72.2		L	6-	17		-0.175
4/02	PALMYRA (0-11)	PA Indep	54.8		W	16-	3		0.050
4/10	at Hershey (16-1)	PA Indep	81.0		L	7-	21		0.000
4/11	CUMBERLAND VALLEY (14-5)	PA C-D3	78.3		L	1-	10		-0.075
4/18	at Central Dauphin (5-10)	PA Indep	76.6		L	7-	9		-0.100
4/20	at Central Dauphin East (4-12)	PA Indep	69.2		W	7-	5		0.275
4/23	CARLISLE (8-8)	PA Indep	77.5		L	10-	18		-0.125
4/25	at Palmyra (0-11)	PA Indep	54.8		W	10-	9		0.100
4/28	CEDAR CREST (0-13)	PA LLL	65.7		W	14-	10		0.200
4/30	at Lampeter-Strasburg (3-6)	PA LLL	76.4			-
5/02	HERSHEY (16-1)	PA Indep	81.0		L	1-	18		0.000
5/07	at Cumberland Valley (14-5)	PA C-D3	78.3		L	3-	12		-0.025
5/09	CENTRAL DAUPHIN EAST (4-12)	PA Indep	69.2		W	8-	3		0.225
5/11	vs. Ephrata # (2-12)	PA LLL	72.2			-
# Neutral site			69.8						0.13

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/26	H	Central Dauphin	5-	11	-6	-3	–	-1.07	-2.54
3/28	A	Carlisle	8-	11	-3	-8	++	1.07	4.64
3/29	A	Ephrata	6-	17	-11	-3	–––	1.07	-7.72
4/02	H	Palmyra	16-	3	13	8	++	-1.07	5.12
4/10	A	Hershey	7-	21	-14	-15		1.07	0.94
4/11	H	Cumberland Valley	1-	10	-9	-7		-1.07	-1.91
4/18	A	Central Dauphin	7-	9	-2	-6	+	1.07	3.61
4/20	A	Central Dauphin East	7-	5	2	-1	+	1.07	2.90
4/23	H	Carlisle	10-	18	-8	-5	–	-1.07	-2.51
4/25	A	Palmyra	10-	9	1	6	––	1.07	-4.73
4/28	H	Cedar Crest	14-	10	4	2	+	-1.07	2.40
5/02	H	Hershey	1-	18	-17	-13	––	-1.07	-4.20
5/07	A	Cumberland Valley	3-	12	-9	-9		1.07	0.24
5/09	H	Central Dauphin East	8-	3	5	1	+	-1.07	3.76
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/29	A	Ephrata	6-	17	1.00
4/02	H	Palmyra	16-	3	-3.00
4/10	A	Hershey	7-	21	-0.94
5/02	H	Hershey	1-	18	4.20
10-goal correction: 0.09

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	70.		Natl CCR Rank	1188
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	70.25		Natl Power Rank	1188
Natl SOS Rating	55.22		Natl SOS Rank	1522
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.13		Natl Quality Win Rank	795
W-L Pct Rating	0.36		W-L Pct Rank	1273
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	5-9		Ave Goal diff (all )	-3.9
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-0		Ave Goal diff (top 5)
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-0		Ave Goal diff (top 10)
Wins/Losses (2nd 10)	0-0		Ave Goal diff (top 20)
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-7.0

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