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Norwalk Bears (4-11)

Region: CT Div 2

State: CT

Coach: Al Morgenthaler

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
4/05	at Shelton (1-14)	CT Div 2	66.1		W	13-	6		0.075
4/11	at Brien McMahon (14-7)	CT Div 2	81.4		L	3-	13		-0.025
4/14	ST. JOSEPH, CT (7-9)	CT Div 2	78.6		L	6-	11		-0.150
4/17	at Trumbull (3-13)	CT Div 2	76.1		L	8-	14		-0.150
4/21	RIDGEFIELD (11-7)	CT Div 2	81.1		L	6-	15		-0.075
4/24	GREENWICH HS (15-5)	CT Div 1	88.5	3	L	1-	16		0.000
4/26	at Fairfield Ludlowe (10-8)	CT Div 2	79.2		L	10-	12		-0.100
5/04	at Staples (7-9)	CT Div 2	77.0		L	6-	8		-0.150
5/05	HOUSATONIC VALLEY (0-11)	CT Div 2	59.8		W	16-	4		0.000
5/08	WILTON (17-4)	CT Div 1	88.7	2	L	3-	19		0.000
5/12	at Danbury (7-9)	CT Div 2	78.4		L	7-	11		-0.100
5/14	SHELTON (1-14)	CT Div 2	66.1		W	16-	2		0.025
5/16	STAPLES (7-9)	CT Div 2	77.0		L	11-	15		-0.200
5/18	FAIRFIELD LUDLOWE (10-8)	CT Div 2	79.2		L	7-	17		-0.125
5/21	WEST HAVEN (7-9)	CT Div 2	75.3		W	11-	9		0.225
			74.8						-0.75

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
4/05	A	Shelton	13-	6	7	7		0.72	-0.14
4/11	A	Brien McMahon	3-	13	-10	-9		0.72	-1.45
4/14	H	St. Joseph, CT	6-	11	-5	-4		-0.72	-0.79
4/17	A	Trumbull	8-	14	-6	-4	–	0.72	-2.27
4/21	H	Ridgefield	6-	15	-9	-7	–	-0.72	-2.10
4/24	H	Greenwich HS	1-	16	-15	-16		-0.72	1.19
4/26	A	Fairfield Ludlowe	10-	12	-2	-6	+	0.72	3.97
5/04	A	Staples	6-	8	-2	-4		0.72	1.66
5/05	H	Housatonic Valley	16-	4	12	14	–	-0.72	-2.05
5/08	H	Wilton	3-	19	-16	-17		-0.72	0.64
5/12	A	Danbury	7-	11	-4	-6		0.72	1.73
5/14	H	Shelton	16-	2	14	9	++	-0.72	5.41
5/16	H	Staples	11-	15	-4	-2		-0.72	-1.78
5/18	H	Fairfield Ludlowe	7-	17	-10	-5	––	-0.72	-5.48
5/21	H	West Haven	11-	9	2	1		-0.72	1.47
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/11	A	Brien McMahon	3-	13	0.00
4/24	H	Greenwich HS	1-	16	-1.19
5/05	H	Housatonic Valley	16-	4	2.05
5/08	H	Wilton	3-	19	-0.64
5/14	H	Shelton	16-	2	-4.00
5/18	H	Fairfield Ludlowe	7-	17	0.00
10-goal correction: -0.25

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	74.		Natl CCR Rank	863
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	74.50		Natl Power Rank	863
Natl SOS Rating	63.62		Natl SOS Rank	798
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.75		Natl Quality Win Rank	1929
W-L Pct Rating	0.27		W-L Pct Rank	1477
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	4-11		Ave Goal diff (all )	-3.2
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-15.5
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-15.5
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-4		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-12.5
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-4.0


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