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Bowdoin Polar Bears (7-8)

Conference: NESCAC

Region: North

State: ME

Coach: Tom McCabe

#4 Wesleyan Downs Bowdoin in NESCAC Quarters

MIDDLETOWN, Conn. -- Matching the score of the regular-season meeting between the teams four weeks earlier in Brunswick, Me., Wesleyan, ranked fourth nationally in Division III, extended its winning streak this season to 10 games with a 7-3 win over Bowdoin in a first-round NESCAC tournament game. Wesleyan advances to the semi-finals at Tufts University Saturday, May 5 where it will take on Little Three rival Williams, which defeated Amherst, 9-5. Wesleyan upended Williams by an 11-7 count during the regular-season and defeated the Ephs in a NESCAC tournament game a year ago, 12-5. Tufts and Middlebury square off in the other semifinal. [full story]

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score*				QWF
3/10	CONNECTICUT COLLEGE (5-9)	NESCAC	83.7		W	9-	6		0.00
3/14	vs. Kenyon # (12-2)	North Coast	84.1		L	7-	8		0.00
3/17	vs. Clarkson # (6-10)	Liberty	83.4		W	6-	5	ot	0.00
3/20	vs. St. Lawrence # (14-2)	Liberty	88.6	5	W	12-	11	ot	-0.80
3/24	at Middlebury (11-7)	NESCAC	88.1	16	L	5-	15		0.00
3/28	ENDICOTT (14-3)	Commonwealth	85.9	15	L	6-	10		0.00
3/31	WESLEYAN (18-3)	NESCAC	87.8	6	L	3-	7		0.00
4/07	TRINITY (9-6)	NESCAC	83.9		W	9-	7		0.00
4/10	vs. Springfield # (8-9)	Pilgrim	84.0		W	12-	6		0.00
4/14	TUFTS (13-4)	NESCAC	86.5	9	L	7-	9		0.00
4/21	at Amherst (7-8)	NESCAC	83.7		L	2-	14		0.00
4/23	at Colby (3-10)	NESCAC	81.8		W	10-	8		0.00
4/25	at Bates (6-6)	NESCAC	83.7		L	8-	9		0.00
4/28	WILLIAMS (8-6)	NESCAC	85.6		W	6-	5		0.00
4/29	at Wesleyan (18-3)	NESCAC	87.8	6	L	3-	7		0.00
* Click the score for the game story. # Neutral site			84.7						-0.80

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/10	H	Connecticut College	9-	6	3	2		-1.74	1.15
3/14	N	Kenyon	7-	8	-1	-1		0.00	-0.31
3/17	N	Clarkson	6-	5	1	0		0.00	0.80
3/20	N	St. Lawrence	12-	11	1	-5	++	0.00	5.99
3/24	A	Middlebury	5-	15	-10	-6	–	1.74	-3.54
3/28	H	Endicott	6-	10	-4	-1	–	-1.74	-3.26
3/31	H	Wesleyan	3-	7	-4	-3		-1.74	-1.44
4/07	H	Trinity	9-	7	2	2		-1.74	0.30
4/10	N	Springfield	12-	6	6	0	+++	0.00	6.03
4/14	H	Tufts	7-	9	-2	-1		-1.74	-1.03
4/21	A	Amherst	2-	14	-12	-2	–––	1.74	10.24
4/23	A	Colby	10-	8	2	1		1.74	1.50
4/25	A	Bates	8-	9	-1	-2		1.74	0.95
4/28	H	Williams	6-	5	1	0		-1.74	1.07
4/29	A	Wesleyan	3-	7	-4	-6	+	1.74	2.04
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/24	A	Middlebury	5-	15	0.00
4/21	A	Amherst	2-	14	2.00
10-goal correction: 0.13

Local Rating
Local TSI Rating	71.00	Local TSI Rank	20
Local Poll Vote	n/a	Local Poll Rank	n/a
Local Power Rating	83.93	Local Power Rank	34
Local SOS Rating	84.74	Local SOS Rank	3
Local RPI Rating	0.57	Local RPI Rank	31
Local Trend Rating	3.00	Local Trend Rank	61
Local Quality Win Rating	-0.80	Local Quality Win Rank	16
Local Loss Rating	1.60	Local Loss Rank	76
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	7-8	Ave Goal diff (all )	-1.5
Wins/Losses (top 5)	1-0	Ave Goal diff (top 5)	1.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	1-3	Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-2.2
Wins/Losses (top 20)	1-5	Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-3.8
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2	Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-1.3


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