| Conference: Commonwealth | Region: North | State: MA | Coach: Sean Quirk |
#9 Tufts Escapes #15 Endicott in NCAA First Round
MEDFORD - The Tufts Jumbos built an 8-1 lead and then narrowly survived an Endicott College comeback to move on in the NCAA Division III Men's Lacrosse Tournament with a 9-8 victory on Wednesday night at Bello Field. The Jumbos (13-3), who tied a school record with their 13th victory, travel to Gettysburg, Pennsylvania to play the second-ranked Bullets in second-round NCAA action on Saturday at 1:00. Endicott's season is over with a 15-3 record. [full story]
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| Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games. |
| Date | Site | Opponent | Score | Goal Differential | +/ | Home Adv. | Err-L | Err-E |
| Actual | Predicted |
2/27 | H | Springfield | 10- | 6 | 4 | 4 | | -1.74 | -0.19 | |
3/09 | A | Wesleyan | 6- | 9 | -3 | -4 | | 1.74 | 0.56 | |
3/21 | H | MIT | 14- | 7 | 7 | 13 | | -1.74 | -5.76 | |
3/24 | A | Roger Williams | 14- | 7 | 7 | 6 | | 1.74 | 1.19 | |
3/28 | A | Bowdoin | 10- | 6 | 4 | 1 | + | 1.74 | 3.26 | |
3/31 | H | Nichols | 17- | 1 | 16 | 18 | | -1.74 | -1.79 | |
4/03 | A | Wentworth Tech. | 17- | 2 | 15 | 11 | + | 1.74 | 3.89 | |
4/06 | H | Curry | 13- | 2 | 11 | 14 | | -1.74 | -3.12 | |
4/11 | A | Tufts | 10- | 12 | -2 | -2 | | 1.74 | -0.02 | |
4/14 | H | Connecticut College | 16- | 9 | 7 | 4 | + | -1.74 | 2.67 | |
4/17 | A | Gordon | 13- | 11 | 2 | 6 | | 1.74 | -4.41 | |
4/21 | H | New England College | 20- | 4 | 16 | 15 | | -1.74 | 0.56 | |
4/25 | H | U. of New England | 23- | 5 | 18 | 20 | | -1.74 | -2.00 | |
4/28 | A | Salve Regina | 26- | 12 | 14 | 9 | ++ | 1.74 | 4.77 | |
5/03 | H | Salve Regina | 12- | 4 | 8 | 13 | | -1.74 | -4.71 | |
5/05 | H | Gordon | 17- | 3 | 14 | 10 | ++ | -1.74 | 4.11 | |
5/09 | A | Tufts | 8- | 9 | -1 | -2 | | 1.74 | 0.98 | |
| | | | | | | | | | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ten Goal Limit Correction |
| Date | Site | Opponent | Score | Adj. |
3/31 | H | Nichols | 17- | 1 | 1.79 |
4/03 | A | Wentworth Tech. | 17- | 2 | -3.89 |
4/06 | H | Curry | 13- | 2 | 3.12 |
4/21 | H | New England College | 20- | 4 | -0.56 |
4/25 | H | U. of New England | 23- | 5 | 2.00 |
4/28 | A | Salve Regina | 26- | 12 | -4.00 |
5/05 | H | Gordon | 17- | 3 | -4.11 |
| 10-goal correction: -0.33 |
| Local Rating |
| Local TSI Rating | 111.00 | | Local TSI Rank | 32 |
| Local Poll Vote | 44. | | Local Poll Rank | 15 |
| Local Power Rating | 85.95 | | Local Power Rank | 20 |
| Local SOS Rating | 77.68 | | Local SOS Rank | 75 |
| Local RPI Rating | 0.59 | | Local RPI Rank | 21 |
| Local Trend Rating | 1.00 | | Local Trend Rank | 5 |
| Local Quality Win Rating | n/a | | Local Quality Win Rank | n/a |
| Local Loss Rating | 0.60 | | Local Loss Rank | 7 |
| Local Performance |
| Wins/Losses (all ) | 14-3 | | Ave Goal diff (all ) | 8.1 |
| Wins/Losses (top 5) | 0-0 | | Ave Goal diff (top 5) | |
| Wins/Losses (top 10) | 0-3 | | Ave Goal diff (top 10) | -2.0 |
| Wins/Losses (top 20) | 0-3 | | Ave Goal diff (top 20) | -2.0 |
| Wins/Losses (last 3) | 2-1 | | Ave Goal diff (last 3) | 7.0 |
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