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Nazareth Golden Flyers (16-3)

Conference: Empire 8

Region: North

State: NY

Coach: Rob Randall

#6 Wesleyan Reaches Semis with Win over #4 Nazareth

MIDDLETOWN, Conn. -- Setting a team record for wins in a season with its 18th victory, Wesleyan University (18-2) won the first-ever meeting with perennial national power Nazareth College (16-3) in an NCAA Division III men's lacrosse quarterfinal game here Wednesday, 9-6. The win propels the Cardinals to their second straight contest vs. Cortland St. in a national semi-final as Cortland, the defending national champ, knocked off previous undefeated Western New England, 12-10, in its quarter-final matchup. In last year's semifinal, Cortland came back to defeat Wesleyan in overtime, 7-6. [full story]

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score*				QWF
2/24	GORDON (8-8)	Commonwealth	78.5		W	17-	5		0.00
3/04	at Springfield (8-9)	Pilgrim	84.0		W	10-	9		0.00
3/10	GENESEO (9-5)	SUNYAC	86.8	18	W	10-	8		-0.15
3/13	vs. Connecticut College # (5-9)	NESCAC	83.7		W	14-	8		0.00
3/20	WESTERN NEW ENGLAND (17-1)	Pilgrim	86.3	3	L	4-	9		0.00
3/24	at Hamilton (5-9)	Liberty	80.9		W	11-	6		0.00
3/28	CORTLAND (15-6)	SUNYAC	89.5	12	W	7-	6		-0.45
3/31	ELMIRA (4-8)	Empire 8	77.6		W	21-	4		0.00
4/04	UTICA COLLEGE (6-8)	Empire 8	78.4		W	16-	7		0.00
4/07	at Hartwick (7-8)	Empire 8	82.5		W	10-	9	ot	0.00
4/11	at Alfred (6-7)	Empire 8	77.3		W	17-	2		0.00
4/14	at RIT (14-3)	Empire 8	87.4	14	W	13-	12		-0.35
4/17	KEUKA (7-5)	Independent	78.9		W	22-	4		0.00
4/20	ITHACA (16-4)	Empire 8	87.2	8	L	9-	15		0.00
4/24	at St. John Fisher (10-7)	Empire 8	83.4		W	16-	8		0.00
4/27	RIT (14-3)	Empire 8	87.4	14	W	14-	8		-0.35
4/29	at Ithaca (16-4)	Empire 8	87.2	8	W	16-	14		-0.65
5/12	GENESEO (9-5)	SUNYAC	86.8	18	W	15-	5		-0.15
5/16	at Wesleyan (18-3)	NESCAC	87.8	6	L	6-	9		0.00
* Click the score for the game story. # Neutral site			83.2						-2.10

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
2/24	H	Gordon	17-	5	12	12		-1.74	-0.49
3/04	A	Springfield	10-	9	1	3	–	1.74	-2.31
3/10	H	Geneseo	10-	8	2	4		-1.74	-1.75
3/13	N	Connecticut College	14-	8	6	5		0.00	0.81
3/20	H	Western New England	4-	9	-5	4	–––	-1.74	-9.30
3/24	A	Hamilton	11-	6	5	6		1.74	-0.79
3/28	H	Cortland	7-	6	1	1		-1.74	0.48
3/31	H	Elmira	21-	4	17	14	+	-1.74	3.19
4/04	H	Utica College	16-	7	9	13	–	-1.74	-3.67
4/07	A	Hartwick	10-	9	1	5	––	1.74	-4.40
4/11	A	Alfred	17-	2	15	10	++	1.74	5.31
4/14	A	RIT	13-	12	1	-1		1.74	1.76
4/17	H	Keuka	22-	4	18	12	+++	-1.74	6.33
4/20	H	Ithaca	9-	15	-6	3	–––	-1.74	-9.18
4/24	A	St. John Fisher	16-	8	8	4	++	1.74	4.22
4/27	H	RIT	14-	8	6	3	+	-1.74	3.28
4/29	A	Ithaca	16-	14	2	0	+	1.74	2.30
5/12	H	Geneseo	15-	5	10	4	+++	-1.74	6.25
5/16	A	Wesleyan	6-	9	-3	-1	–	1.74	-2.04
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
2/24	H	Gordon	17-	5	0.49
3/31	H	Elmira	21-	4	-3.19
4/11	A	Alfred	17-	2	-5.31
4/17	H	Keuka	22-	4	-6.33
5/12	H	Geneseo	15-	5	0.00
10-goal correction: -0.75

Local Rating
Local TSI Rating	9.00	Local TSI Rank	4
Local Poll Vote	151.	Local Poll Rank	4
Local Power Rating	88.13	Local Power Rank	6
Local SOS Rating	83.16	Local SOS Rank	18
Local RPI Rating	0.68	Local RPI Rank	3
Local Trend Rating	1.00	Local Trend Rank	17
Local Quality Win Rating	-2.10	Local Quality Win Rank	4
Local Loss Rating	0.60	Local Loss Rank	10
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	16-3	Ave Goal diff (all )	5.3
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-1	Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-5.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	1-3	Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-3.0
Wins/Losses (top 20)	6-3	Ave Goal diff (top 20)	0.9
Wins/Losses (last 3)	2-1	Ave Goal diff (last 3)	3.0


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