| Conference: Empire 8 | Region: North | State: NY | Coach: Rob Randall |
#6 Wesleyan Reaches Semis with Win over #4 Nazareth
MIDDLETOWN, Conn. -- Setting a team record for wins in a season with its 18th victory, Wesleyan University (18-2) won the first-ever meeting with perennial national power Nazareth College (16-3) in an NCAA Division III men's lacrosse quarterfinal game here Wednesday, 9-6. The win propels the Cardinals to their second straight contest vs. Cortland St. in a national semi-final as Cortland, the defending national champ, knocked off previous undefeated Western New England, 12-10, in its quarter-final matchup. In last year's semifinal, Cortland came back to defeat Wesleyan in overtime, 7-6. [full story]
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| Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games. |
| Date | Site | Opponent | Score | Goal Differential | +/ | Home Adv. | Err-L | Err-E |
| Actual | Predicted |
2/24 | H | Gordon | 17- | 5 | 12 | 12 | | -1.74 | -0.49 | |
3/04 | A | Springfield | 10- | 9 | 1 | 3 | | 1.74 | -2.31 | |
3/10 | H | Geneseo | 10- | 8 | 2 | 4 | | -1.74 | -1.75 | |
3/13 | N | Connecticut College | 14- | 8 | 6 | 5 | | 0.00 | 0.81 | |
3/20 | H | Western New England | 4- | 9 | -5 | 4 | | -1.74 | -9.30 | |
3/24 | A | Hamilton | 11- | 6 | 5 | 6 | | 1.74 | -0.79 | |
3/28 | H | Cortland | 7- | 6 | 1 | 1 | | -1.74 | 0.48 | |
3/31 | H | Elmira | 21- | 4 | 17 | 14 | + | -1.74 | 3.19 | |
4/04 | H | Utica College | 16- | 7 | 9 | 13 | | -1.74 | -3.67 | |
4/07 | A | Hartwick | 10- | 9 | 1 | 5 | | 1.74 | -4.40 | |
4/11 | A | Alfred | 17- | 2 | 15 | 10 | ++ | 1.74 | 5.31 | |
4/14 | A | RIT | 13- | 12 | 1 | -1 | | 1.74 | 1.76 | |
4/17 | H | Keuka | 22- | 4 | 18 | 12 | +++ | -1.74 | 6.33 | |
4/20 | H | Ithaca | 9- | 15 | -6 | 3 | | -1.74 | -9.18 | |
4/24 | A | St. John Fisher | 16- | 8 | 8 | 4 | ++ | 1.74 | 4.22 | |
4/27 | H | RIT | 14- | 8 | 6 | 3 | + | -1.74 | 3.28 | |
4/29 | A | Ithaca | 16- | 14 | 2 | 0 | + | 1.74 | 2.30 | |
5/12 | H | Geneseo | 15- | 5 | 10 | 4 | +++ | -1.74 | 6.25 | |
5/16 | A | Wesleyan | 6- | 9 | -3 | -1 | | 1.74 | -2.04 | |
| | | | | | | | | | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ten Goal Limit Correction |
| Date | Site | Opponent | Score | Adj. |
2/24 | H | Gordon | 17- | 5 | 0.49 |
3/31 | H | Elmira | 21- | 4 | -3.19 |
4/11 | A | Alfred | 17- | 2 | -5.31 |
4/17 | H | Keuka | 22- | 4 | -6.33 |
5/12 | H | Geneseo | 15- | 5 | 0.00 |
| 10-goal correction: -0.75 |
| Local Rating |
| Local TSI Rating | 9.00 | | Local TSI Rank | 4 |
| Local Poll Vote | 151. | | Local Poll Rank | 4 |
| Local Power Rating | 88.13 | | Local Power Rank | 6 |
| Local SOS Rating | 83.16 | | Local SOS Rank | 18 |
| Local RPI Rating | 0.68 | | Local RPI Rank | 3 |
| Local Trend Rating | 1.00 | | Local Trend Rank | 17 |
| Local Quality Win Rating | -2.10 | | Local Quality Win Rank | 4 |
| Local Loss Rating | 0.60 | | Local Loss Rank | 10 |
| Local Performance |
| Wins/Losses (all ) | 16-3 | | Ave Goal diff (all ) | 5.3 |
| Wins/Losses (top 5) | 0-1 | | Ave Goal diff (top 5) | -5.0 |
| Wins/Losses (top 10) | 1-3 | | Ave Goal diff (top 10) | -3.0 |
| Wins/Losses (top 20) | 6-3 | | Ave Goal diff (top 20) | 0.9 |
| Wins/Losses (last 3) | 2-1 | | Ave Goal diff (last 3) | 3.0 |
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