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Bowdoin Polar Bears (9-6)

Conference: NESCAC

Region: New England

State: ME

Coach: Liz Grote

#13 Colby Edges #11 Bowdoin in NESCAC Quarters

WATERVILLE, Maine -- Becky Julian (South Windsor, Conn.) scored the game-winning goal with2:15 left for her fourth goal of the contest to lift fourth-seeded Colby College to a 10-9 win over fifth-seeded Bowdoin College in a New England Small College Athletic Conference quarterfinal game Sunday at Bill Alfond Field. Colby (11-4) will take on sixth-seeded Amherst in a NESCAC semifinal game next Saturday at 2:30 p.m. at Middlebury College. Amherst took a 13-5 win against third-seeded Wesleyan on Sunday. [full story]

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score*				QWF
3/10	at Connecticut College (4-10)	NESCAC	77.5		W	18-	8		0.00
3/13	vs. Gettysburg # (17-4)	Centennial	86.5	4	L	6-	8		0.00
3/15	vs. Hamilton # (16-3)	Liberty Leagu	86.2	6	W	8-	7		-0.75
3/16	vs. Springfield # (10-8)	NEWMAC	77.2		W	16-	3		0.00
3/24	MIDDLEBURY (16-2)	NESCAC	88.4	3	L	5-	11		0.00
3/27	WHEATON (4-12)	NEWMAC	72.3		W	18-	7		0.00
3/31	at Wesleyan (CT) (8-6)	NESCAC	82.4	13	L	8-	10	ot	0.00
4/01	PLYMOUTH STATE (14-5)	Little East	78.9		W	11-	5		0.00
4/07	at Trinity (CT) (12-5)	NESCAC	84.1	11	L	6-	8		0.00
4/14	at Tufts (7-7)	NESCAC	82.8	19	W	8-	6	ot	-0.10
4/18	COLBY (12-5)	NESCAC	84.6	8	L	8-	13		0.00
4/21	AMHERST (9-7)	NESCAC	83.3	10	W	11-	10		-0.55
4/24	BATES (8-7)	NESCAC	81.1		W	12-	8		0.00
4/28	at Williams (6-8)	NESCAC	82.1	16	W	15-	12		-0.25
4/29	at Colby (12-5)	NESCAC	84.6	8	L	9-	10		0.00
* Click the score for the game story. # Neutral site			82.5						-1.65

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/10	A	Connecticut College	18-	8	10	5	++	1.91	4.87
3/13	N	Gettysburg	6-	8	-2	-2		0.00	0.48
3/15	N	Hamilton	8-	7	1	-2	+	0.00	3.16
3/16	N	Springfield	16-	3	13	7	++	0.00	5.76
3/24	H	Middlebury	5-	11	-6	-3	–	-1.91	-3.35
3/27	H	Wheaton	18-	7	11	15	––	-1.91	-4.05
3/31	A	Wesleyan (CT)	8-	10	-2	0	–	1.91	-2.06
4/01	H	Plymouth State	11-	5	6	7		-1.91	-1.32
4/07	A	Trinity (CT)	6-	8	-2	-2		1.91	-0.05
4/14	A	Tufts	8-	6	2	-1	+	1.91	2.80
4/18	H	Colby	8-	13	-5	2	–––	-1.91	-6.80
4/21	H	Amherst	11-	10	1	3		-1.91	-1.53
4/24	H	Bates	12-	8	4	6		-1.91	-1.53
4/28	A	Williams	15-	12	3	0	+	1.91	2.60
4/29	A	Colby	9-	10	-1	-2		1.91	1.01
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/10	A	Connecticut College	18-	8	0.00
3/16	N	Springfield	16-	3	-3.00
3/27	H	Wheaton	18-	7	4.05
10-goal correction: 0.07

Local Rating
Local TSI Rating	28.00	Local TSI Rank	10
Local Poll Vote	104.	Local Poll Rank	14
Local Power Rating	84.45	Local Power Rank	10
Local SOS Rating	82.50	Local SOS Rank	3
Local RPI Rating	0.61	Local RPI Rank	21
Local Trend Rating	2.00	Local Trend Rank	26
Local Quality Win Rating	-1.65	Local Quality Win Rank	8
Local Loss Rating	1.20	Local Loss Rank	23
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	9-6	Ave Goal diff (all )	2.2
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-2	Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-4.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	2-4	Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-2.0
Wins/Losses (top 20)	4-6	Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-1.1
Wins/Losses (last 3)	2-1	Ave Goal diff (last 3)	2.0


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