| Conference: NESCAC | Region: New England | State: CT | Coach: Holly Wheeler |
#10 Wesleyan Falls to #9 Amherst in NESCAC Quarters
MIDDLETOWN, Conn. -- Extending its dominance of Wesleyan to 16 games dating back to 1994, and 24-10 all-time, Amherst broke a 2-2 tie on a strong individual move by sophomore Mary Noonan to slip past two Wesleyan defenders and go on for the go-ahead goal at 17:59 of the first half, igniting a 6-0 run which led to a 13-5 decision in a NESCAC tournament first-round contest. Wesleyan and Amherst had posted identical 5-4 records in conference play and despite a 10-5 victory over Wesleyan on opening day back in March, Amherst was relegated to the sixth-seed while Wesleyan eared the number-three seed as Wesleyan controlled the tie-breaker in a four-way deadlock with Bowdoin and Colby also involved. [full story]
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| Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games. |
| Date | Site | Opponent | Score | Goal Differential | +/– | Home Adv. | Err-L | Err-E |
|---|
| Actual | Predicted |
|---|
3/11 | N | Amherst | 5- | 10 | -5 | -1 | – | 0.00 | -3.66 | |
3/13 | H | Eastern Connecticut | 15- | 6 | 9 | 7 | + | -1.91 | 2.00 | |
3/15 | A | Babson | 12- | 13 | -1 | -1 | | 1.91 | 0.30 | |
3/22 | A | Endicott | 16- | 9 | 7 | 5 | | 1.91 | 1.64 | |
3/24 | A | Tufts | 12- | 9 | 3 | -3 | ++ | 1.91 | 5.76 | |
3/31 | H | Bowdoin | 10- | 8 | 2 | 0 | + | -1.91 | 2.06 | |
4/04 | H | Connecticut College | 14- | 7 | 7 | 7 | | -1.91 | 0.03 | |
4/07 | A | Williams | 6- | 11 | -5 | -2 | – | 1.91 | -3.43 | |
4/12 | H | Wheaton | 11- | 6 | 5 | 13 | ––– | -1.91 | -8.08 | |
4/14 | H | Colby | 12- | 7 | 5 | 0 | ++ | -1.91 | 5.16 | |
4/18 | A | Trinity (CT) | 8- | 10 | -2 | -4 | | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
4/21 | H | Middlebury | 9- | 10 | -1 | -5 | + | -1.91 | 3.62 | |
4/28 | A | Bates | 10- | 9 | 1 | 0 | | 1.91 | 1.24 | |
4/29 | H | Amherst | 5- | 13 | -8 | 1 | ––– | -1.91 | -8.56 | |
| | | | | | | | | | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ten Goal Limit Correction |
|---|
| Date | Site | Opponent | Score | Adj. |
|---|
| 10-goal correction: 0.00 |
| Local Rating |
|---|
| Local TSI Rating | 46.00 | | Local TSI Rank | 13 |
| Local Poll Vote | 106. | | Local Poll Rank | 13 |
| Local Power Rating | 82.41 | | Local Power Rank | 14 |
| Local SOS Rating | 81.65 | | Local SOS Rank | 7 |
| Local RPI Rating | 0.59 | | Local RPI Rank | 30 |
| Local Trend Rating | 3.00 | | Local Trend Rank | 111 |
| Local Quality Win Rating | -1.10 | | Local Quality Win Rank | 13 |
| Local Loss Rating | 1.20 | | Local Loss Rank | 30 |
| Local Performance |
|---|
| Wins/Losses (all ) | 8-6 | | Ave Goal diff (all ) | 1.2 |
| Wins/Losses (top 5) | 0-1 | | Ave Goal diff (top 5) | -1.0 |
| Wins/Losses (top 10) | 1-4 | | Ave Goal diff (top 10) | -2.0 |
| Wins/Losses (top 20) | 3-6 | | Ave Goal diff (top 20) | -1.3 |
| Wins/Losses (last 3) | 1-2 | | Ave Goal diff (last 3) | -2.7 |
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