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Frontier Falcons (13-6)

Region: NY A Sec 6

State: NY

Coach: Chris Stack

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
4/01	SWEET HOME (10-9)	NY B Sec 6	90.1		W	4-	2		0.125
4/04	at West Seneca East (12-9)	NY B Sec 6	92.7	8	W	7-	1		0.225
4/08	AMHERST (13-5)	NY B Sec 6	96.2	5	W	11-	9		0.275
4/10	at Orchard Park (19-3)	NY A Sec 6	98.7	1	L	7-	12		-0.050
4/22	NORTH TONAWANDA (3-11)	NY A Sec 6	78.7		W	9-	2		0.000
4/26	at Newark (7-12)	NY B Sec 5	81.1		W	15-	3		0.000
4/28	LOCKPORT (7-12)	NY A Sec 6	84.3		W	15-	3		0.025
5/02	CLARENCE (12-8)	NY A Sec 6	91.6	10	W	12-	7		0.150
5/05	at Lancaster (8-7)	NY A Sec 6	88.6		W	14-	4		0.125
5/07	JAMESTOWN (2-15)	NY A Sec 6	75.2		W	15-	3		0.000
5/09	at Williamsville North (8-10)	NY A Sec 6	88.4		L	6-	7		-0.375
5/10	at Pittsford (9-9)	NY A Sec 5	92.3		L	3-	7		-0.300
5/13	at West Seneca West (5-13)	NY A Sec 6	83.7		W	14-	3		0.050
5/15	NIAGARA WHEATFIELD (15-6)	NY A Sec 6	96.7	3	L	11-	13		-0.175
5/17	at Brockport Central (9-8)	NY A Sec 5	87.9		W	8-	5		0.075
5/19	at Hamburg (21-2)	NY B Sec 6	98.6	2	L	8-	13		-0.075
5/22	at Williamsville East (12-6)	NY B Sec 6	92.6	9	W	8-	5		0.200
5/30	LANCASTER (8-7)	NY A Sec 6	88.6		W	13-	6		0.100
6/03	at Niagara Wheatfield (15-6)	NY A Sec 6	96.7	3	L	9-	14		-0.125
			87.3						0.25

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
4/01	H	Sweet Home	4-	2	2	5	–	-0.89	-3.33
4/04	A	West Seneca East	7-	1	6	1	++	0.89	4.73
4/08	H	Amherst	11-	9	2	-1	+	-0.89	2.98
4/10	A	Orchard Park	7-	12	-5	-8	+	0.89	3.06
4/22	H	North Tonawanda	9-	2	7	18	–––	-0.89	11.20
4/26	A	Newark	15-	3	12	13		1.19		-1.41
4/28	H	Lockport	15-	3	12	9	+	-0.89	2.83
5/02	H	Clarence	12-	7	5	4		-0.89	0.61
5/05	A	Lancaster	14-	4	10	5	++	0.89	5.37
5/07	H	Jamestown	15-	3	12	19	–––	-0.89	-7.18
5/09	A	Williamsville North	6-	7	-1	5	––	0.89	-5.72
5/10	A	Pittsford	3-	7	-4	2	–––	1.19		-6.24
5/13	A	West Seneca West	14-	3	11	8	+	0.89	3.34
5/15	H	Niagara Wheatfield	11-	13	-2	-3		-0.89	0.80
5/17	A	Brockport Central	8-	5	3	7	–	1.19		-3.61
5/19	A	Hamburg	8-	13	-5	-7	+	0.89	2.39
5/22	A	Williamsville East	8-	5	3	2		0.89	1.14
5/30	H	Lancaster	13-	6	7	6		-0.89	0.59
6/03	A	Niagara Wheatfield	9-	14	-5	-5		0.89	-0.41
									0.00	-11.26

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/26	A	Newark	15-	3	1.41
4/28	H	Lockport	15-	3	-2.00
5/05	A	Lancaster	14-	4	0.00
5/07	H	Jamestown	15-	3	7.18
5/13	A	West Seneca West	14-	3	-1.00
10-goal correction: 0.29

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	96.		Natl CCR Rank	211
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	95.75		Natl Power Rank	211
Natl SOS Rating	81.49		Natl SOS Rank	424
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.25		Natl Quality Win Rank	947
W-L Pct Rating	0.68		W-L Pct Rank	649
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	13-6		Ave Goal diff (all )	3.7
Wins/Losses (top 5)	1-4		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-3.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	4-4		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-0.1
Wins/Losses (top 20)	7-5		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	1.4
Wins/Losses (last 3)	2-1		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	1.7


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