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Fairfield-Warde Mustangs (6-10)

Conference: FCIAC

Region: CT M

State: CT

Coach: Tom Cunningham

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
4/03	at Brien McMahon-Norwalk (10-8)	CT M	94.1		L	4-	17		0.000
4/07	at Wilton (12-8)	CT M	95.6	7	L	3-	15		0.000
4/11	at Notre Dame-Fairfield (5-11)	CT S	82.3		W	11-	9		0.225
4/12	at Fairfield-Ludlowe (10-7)	CT M	91.1		L	2-	16		-0.100
4/14	NEW CANAAN (14-7)	CT M	95.5	8	L	5-	13		0.000
4/19	at Darien (22-1)	CT M	99.3	1	L	5-	20		0.000
4/23	at Trumbull (9-9)	CT L	90.4		L	7-	14		-0.100
4/25	NORWALK (8-10)	CT L	90.9		L	10-	17		-0.150
4/28	NOTRE DAME-WEST HAVEN (6-10)	CT M	82.3		W	12-	8		0.150
4/30	STAPLES-WESTPORT (6-10)	CT L	87.8		L	6-	7		-0.175
5/01	at Bridgeport Central (0-14)	CT L	70.9		W	18-	4		0.000
5/07	STAMFORD (4-11)	CT L	82.7		W	14-	9		0.175
5/09	TRINITY CATHOLIC (1-15)	CT S	77.3		W	12-	4		0.050
5/12	STRATFORD (0-15)	CT S	73.3		W	10-	4		0.000
5/16	RIDGEFIELD (19-4)	CT L	97.0	5	L	3-	15		0.000
5/19	ST JOSEPH-TRUMBULL (12-8)	CT S	93.3		L	10-	18		-0.100
			83.8						-0.03

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
4/03	A	Brien McMahon-Norwalk	4-	17	-13	-10	–	1.20	-3.05
4/07	A	Wilton	3-	15	-12	-15	+	1.20	2.55
4/11	A	Notre Dame-Fairfield	11-	9	2	1		1.20	0.82
4/12	A	Fairfield-Ludlowe	2-	16	-14	-6	–––	1.20	-7.76
4/14	H	New Canaan	5-	13	-8	-11	+	-1.20	3.00
4/19	A	Darien	5-	20	-15	-20	++	1.20	5.47
4/23	A	Trumbull	7-	14	-7	-6		1.20	-1.33
4/25	H	Norwalk	10-	17	-7	-4	–	-1.20	-2.71
4/28	H	Notre Dame-West Haven	12-	8	4	4		-1.20	0.43
4/30	H	Staples-Westport	6-	7	-1	-3		-1.20	1.88
5/01	A	Bridgeport Central	18-	4	14	11	+	1.20	2.98
5/07	H	Stamford	14-	9	5	3	+	-1.20	2.11
5/09	H	Trinity Catholic	12-	4	8	8		-1.20	0.05
5/12	H	Stratford	10-	4	6	10	––	-1.20	-4.13
5/16	H	Ridgefield	3-	15	-12	-13		-1.20	1.23
5/19	H	St Joseph-Trumbull	10-	18	-8	-6		-1.20	-1.54
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/03	A	Brien McMahon-Norwalk	4-	17	3.00
4/07	A	Wilton	3-	15	-2.55
4/12	A	Fairfield-Ludlowe	2-	16	4.00
4/19	A	Darien	5-	20	-5.47
5/01	A	Bridgeport Central	18-	4	-2.98
5/16	H	Ridgefield	3-	15	-1.23
10-goal correction: -0.33

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	85.		Natl CCR Rank	1366
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	85.12		Natl Power Rank	1366
Natl SOS Rating	74.84		Natl SOS Rank	977
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.03		Natl Quality Win Rank	1492
W-L Pct Rating	0.38		W-L Pct Rank	1845
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	6-10		Ave Goal diff (all )	-3.6
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-13.5
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-4		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-11.8
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-6		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-11.3
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-4.7


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