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Gunston Day Fighting Herons (7-8)

Region: MD MILL

State: MD

Coach: Ned Southworth

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/26	at Kent County (2-11)	MD 21 East	73.9		W	12-	6		0.150
3/29	NOTRE DAME ACADEMY (9-9)	MD MILL	89.3	7	L	7-	17		-0.025
4/01	at The Heights (11-8)	MD MILL	87.6	10	L	1-	16		0.000
4/04	SANDY SPRING FRIENDS (6-4)	MD MILL	81.0		L	6-	8		-0.250
4/07	at Milford (3-13)	DE Caphen	67.9		W	13-	5		0.000
4/10	BOWIE (0-3)	MD Indep	67.2		W	16-	1		0.000
4/12	ELEANOR ROOSEVELT (3-8)	MD MILL	75.9		W	13-	6		0.200
4/14	at DelMarva Christian (9-7)	DE Diamnd	76.9		W	13-	4		0.225
4/17	at Salisbury (11-3)	MD Indep	84.3		L	4-	10		-0.150
4/24	CALVERTON (11-5)	MD MILL	88.7	9	L	0-	14		-0.050
4/28	SUSSEX TECH (11-7)	DE Caphen	80.1		L	3-	6		-0.250
5/02	at Sandy Spring Friends (6-4)	MD MILL	81.0		W	9-	8		0.325
5/06	at Notre Dame Academy (9-9)	MD MILL	89.3	7	L	2-	15		0.000
5/08	at Sussex Tech (11-7)	DE Caphen	80.1		W	8-	7	ot	0.325
5/09	at Salisbury (11-3)	MD Indep	84.3		L	2-	5		-0.150
			81.0						0.35

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/26	A	Kent County	12-	6	6	4	+	1.33		2.36
3/29	H	Notre Dame Academy	7-	17	-10	-9		-1.73	-0.56
4/01	A	The Heights	1-	16	-15	-12	–	1.73	-2.51
4/04	H	Sandy Spring Friends	6-	8	-2	0	–	-1.73	-2.07
4/07	A	Milford	13-	5	8	10		1.28		-1.73
4/10	H	Bowie	16-	1	15	12	+	-1.73	2.54
4/12	H	Eleanor Roosevelt	13-	6	7	2	++	-1.73	4.64
4/14	A	DelMarva Christian	13-	4	9	1	+++	1.28		8.35
4/17	A	Salisbury	4-	10	-6	-4		1.73	-1.67
4/24	H	Calverton	0-	14	-14	-8	–––	-1.73	-6.01
4/28	H	Sussex Tech	3-	6	-3	0	–	-1.28		-3.04
5/02	A	Sandy Spring Friends	9-	8	1	-3	++	1.73	4.39
5/06	A	Notre Dame Academy	2-	15	-13	-13		1.73	-0.10
5/08	A	Sussex Tech	8-	7	1	-3	+	1.28		3.51
5/09	A	Salisbury	2-	5	-3	-4		1.73	1.33
									0.00	9.45

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/29	H	Notre Dame Academy	7-	17	0.00
4/01	A	The Heights	1-	16	2.51
4/10	H	Bowie	16-	1	-2.54
4/24	H	Calverton	0-	14	4.00
5/06	A	Notre Dame Academy	2-	15	0.10
10-goal correction: 0.27

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	79.		Natl CCR Rank	1897
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	78.86		Natl Power Rank	1897
Natl SOS Rating	69.40		Natl SOS Rank	1536
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.35		Natl Quality Win Rank	873
W-L Pct Rating	0.47		W-L Pct Rank	1495
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	7-8		Ave Goal diff (all )	-1.3
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-0		Ave Goal diff (top 5)
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-4		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-13.0
Wins/Losses (top 20)	1-7		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-7.8
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-5.0


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