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Durham Jordan Falcons (10-9)

Region: NC 4A

State: NC

Coach: Jamie Sliwa

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
2/29	WILMINGTON LANEY (9-8)	NC 4A	82.7		W	15-	8		0.125
3/03	PANTHER CREEK (5-13)	NC 4A	73.6		W	16-	7		0.000
3/11	at Holly Springs (14-3)	NC 4A	86.9		W	15-	11		0.250
3/14	DURHAM RIVERSIDE (5-16)	NC 4A	81.1		W	4-	3		0.125
3/18	at Chapel Hill (20-2)	NC 4A	95.2	1	L	10-	17		-0.050
3/19	vs. Gonzaga # (15-6)	DC WCAC	93.6		L	9-	12		-0.075
3/24	at Ravenscroft School (5-11)	NC Prvate	83.0		L	4-	5		-0.300
3/27	at Northern Durham (1-13)	NC 4A	73.2		W	15-	4		0.000
3/28	at Cary HS (14-5)	NC 4A	87.0	10	L	5-	6		-0.250
4/09	at Durham Academy (12-5)	NC Prvate	90.9		L	6-	12		-0.125
4/11	EAST CHAPEL HILL (18-5)	NC 4A	90.7	4	L	10-	11	ot	-0.225
4/16	BROUGHTON-NEEDHAM (7-8)	NC 4A	79.3		W	17-	6		0.025
4/18	at Durham Riverside (5-16)	NC 4A	81.1		W	6-	4		0.200
4/22	CHAPEL HILL (20-2)	NC 4A	95.2	1	L	4-	16		-0.125
4/24	HOLY CROSS-ST CATH (15-1)	CN NRHSAA	92.0		L	11-	16		-0.175
4/25	NORTHERN DURHAM (1-13)	NC 4A	73.2		W	15-	4		0.000
4/29	at East Chapel Hill (18-5)	NC 4A	90.7	4	W	6-	5		0.350
5/06	HOLLY SPRINGS (14-3)	NC 4A	86.9		W	11-	1		0.175
5/09	at Chapel Hill (20-2)	NC 4A	95.2	1	L	11-	21		-0.050
# Neutral site			87.3						-0.12

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
2/29	H	Wilmington Laney	15-	8	7	5		-1.35	1.52
3/03	H	Panther Creek	16-	7	9	13	–	-1.35	-3.72
3/11	A	Holly Springs	15-	11	4	0	+	1.35	3.82
3/14	H	Durham Riverside	4-	3	1	5	–	-1.35	-3.90
3/18	A	Chapel Hill	10-	17	-7	-8		1.35	0.58
3/19	N	Gonzaga	9-	12	-3	-7	+	0.00		3.61
3/24	A	Ravenscroft School	4-	5	-1	2	–	1.45		-3.49
3/27	A	Northern Durham	15-	4	11	10		1.35	0.99
3/28	A	Cary HS	5-	6	-1	0		1.35	-1.43
4/09	A	Durham Academy	6-	12	-6	-5		1.45		-0.55
4/11	H	East Chapel Hill	10-	11	-1	-1		-1.35	0.02
4/16	H	Broughton-Needham	17-	6	11	9		-1.35	1.71
4/18	A	Durham Riverside	6-	4	2	2		1.35	-0.21
4/22	H	Chapel Hill	4-	16	-12	-5	–––	-1.35	-7.11
4/24	H	Holy Cross-St Cath	11-	16	-5	-3		-1.66		-1.60
4/25	H	Northern Durham	15-	4	11	13		-1.35	-1.70
4/29	A	East Chapel Hill	6-	5	1	-4	++	1.35	4.72
5/06	H	Holly Springs	11-	1	10	3	+++	-1.35	7.13
5/09	A	Chapel Hill	11-	21	-10	-8	–	1.35	-2.42
									0.00	-2.03

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/27	A	Northern Durham	15-	4	-0.99
4/16	H	Broughton-Needham	17-	6	-1.00
4/22	H	Chapel Hill	4-	16	2.00
4/25	H	Northern Durham	15-	4	1.70
5/06	H	Holly Springs	11-	1	0.00
5/09	A	Chapel Hill	11-	21	0.00
10-goal correction: 0.09

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	87.		Natl CCR Rank	1092
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	86.94		Natl Power Rank	1092
Natl SOS Rating	81.37		Natl SOS Rank	439
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.12		Natl Quality Win Rank	1740
W-L Pct Rating	0.53		W-L Pct Rank	1275
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	10-9		Ave Goal diff (all )	1.1
Wins/Losses (top 5)	1-4		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-5.8
Wins/Losses (top 10)	1-5		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-5.0
Wins/Losses (top 20)	4-5		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-1.0
Wins/Losses (last 3)	2-1		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	0.3


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