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J Serra Catholic Lions (14-5)

Conference: D1

Region: CA Trinity

State: CA

Coach: Will McMinn

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
2/27	MIRA COSTA (6-9)	CA So-Bay	81.8		W	8-	4		0.075
3/01	at Loyola-Los Angeles (12-6)	CA Mission	88.0		W	5-	3		0.225
3/05	at Anaheim Servite (4-11)	CA Trinity	74.2		W	12-	3		0.000
3/12	EL TORO (12-6)	CA Seaview	89.5	7	W	10-	5		0.225
3/15	PENINSULA (7-8)	CA So-Bay	84.7		W	15-	0		0.100
3/20	LOS ALAMITOS (9-5)	CA Sunset	87.5		W	6-	5		0.175
3/27	vs. Eastlake # (7-12)	CA Metro	83.2		W	16-	1		0.050
3/28	vs. Amador Valley # (15-7)	CA EastBay	92.9		L	7-	8		-0.200
3/29	vs. Golden # (11-5)	CO Foothil	88.2		W	6-	4		0.175
4/02	BISHOP'S SCHOOL (12-6)	CA Coastal	92.0		L	2-	7		-0.225
4/04	at Saint Margaret's (16-3)	CA Trinity	93.9	3	L	1-	12		-0.125
4/09	BELLEVUE (9-12)	WA 1 Div-1	87.2		W	16-	6		0.125
4/11	SANTA MARGARITA (10-8)	CA Trinity	86.5		W	10-	9		0.175
4/16	at Santa Margarita (10-8)	CA Trinity	86.5		W	7-	6	ot	0.225
4/18	at Oak Park (10-4)	CA Indep	90.4	6	W	11-	10	ot	0.275
4/23	ANAHEIM SERVITE (4-11)	CA Trinity	74.2		W	14-	1		0.000
4/25	SAINT MARGARET'S (16-3)	CA Trinity	93.9	3	L	7-	10		-0.200
4/28	EL TORO (12-6)	CA Seaview	89.5	7	W	9-	7		0.225
4/30	FOOTHILL-SANTA ANA (18-2)	CA Seaview	96.8	1	L	2-	9		-0.125
# Neutral site			87.2						1.17

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
2/27	H	Mira Costa	8-	4	4	7	–	-1.20	-2.88
3/01	A	Loyola-Los Angeles	5-	3	2	1		1.20	1.13
3/05	A	Anaheim Servite	12-	3	9	10		1.20	-1.34
3/12	H	El Toro	10-	5	5	1	++	-1.20	4.01
3/15	H	Peninsula	15-	0	15	6	+++	-1.20	8.94
3/20	H	Los Alamitos	6-	5	1	3	–	-1.20	-2.38
3/27	N	Eastlake	16-	1	15	8	+++	0.00		7.49
3/28	N	Amador Valley	7-	8	-1	-2		0.00		1.18
3/29	N	Golden	6-	4	2	3		0.00		-0.55
4/02	H	Bishop's School	2-	7	-5	-1	––	-0.70		-4.48
4/04	A	Saint Margaret's	1-	12	-11	-5	–––	1.20	-6.36
4/09	H	Bellevue	16-	6	10	5	++	-1.13		5.36
4/11	H	Santa Margarita	10-	9	1	3	–	-1.20	-2.23
4/16	A	Santa Margarita	7-	6	1	1		1.20	0.17
4/18	A	Oak Park	11-	10	1	-1	+	1.20	2.37
4/23	H	Anaheim Servite	14-	1	13	13		-1.20	0.25
4/25	H	Saint Margaret's	7-	10	-3	-2		-1.20	-0.76
4/28	H	El Toro	9-	7	2	1		-1.20	1.01
4/30	H	Foothill-Santa Ana	2-	9	-7	-5		-1.20	-1.94
									0.00	9.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/15	H	Peninsula	15-	0	-5.00
3/27	N	Eastlake	16-	1	-5.00
4/04	A	Saint Margaret's	1-	12	1.00
4/09	H	Bellevue	16-	6	0.00
4/23	H	Anaheim Servite	14-	1	-0.25
10-goal correction: -0.49

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	91.		Natl CCR Rank	645
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	90.75		Natl Power Rank	645
Natl SOS Rating	80.84		Natl SOS Rank	472
Natl Quality Win Rating	1.17		Natl Quality Win Rank	182
W-L Pct Rating	0.74		W-L Pct Rank	443
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	14-5		Ave Goal diff (all )	2.8
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-7.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	4-3		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-1.6
Wins/Losses (top 20)	7-3		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-0.8
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-2.7


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