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Elizabethtown Bears (3-11)

Region: PA LL04

State: PA

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/20	at Palmyra (9-9)	PA Mid 1	83.1		L	3-	5		-0.175
4/01	CONESTOGA VALLEY (4-15)	PA LL04	82.1		L	8-	11		-0.200
4/03	WARWICK (17-6)	PA LL04	93.4	3	L	4-	12		0.000
4/08	at Lancaster Cou Day (12-3)	PA LL04	87.1		L	2-	6		-0.100
4/11	at Cocalico (9-6)	PA LL04	87.7		L	5-	14		-0.075
4/15	at Ephrata (8-12)	PA LL04	82.6		L	5-	9		-0.175
4/22	at Manheim Township (19-9)	PA LL04	94.9	2	L	2-	15		0.000
4/25	at Central Dauphin East (0-14)	PA Mid 1	71.9		W	10-	6		0.050
5/01	LAMPETER-STRASBURG (18-7)	PA LL04	91.7	6	L	5-	18		0.000
5/06	at Harrisburg Academy (1-14)	PA Mid 1	74.9		W	11-	7		0.150
5/08	HEMPFIELD (13-12)	PA LL04	92.2	5	L	2-	13		0.000
5/09	at Penn Manor (12-9)	PA LL04	89.5	8	L	1-	8		-0.025
5/13	LOWER DAUPHIN (6-10)	PA Mid 1	81.3		L	5-	6		-0.225
5/17	LEWISBURG (10-8)	PA CSNLL	79.3		W	5-	3		0.175
			85.3						-0.60

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/20	A	Palmyra	3-	5	-2	-3		0.28	1.04
4/01	H	Conestoga Valley	8-	11	-3	-2		-0.28	-0.52
4/03	H	Warwick	4-	12	-8	-11	+	-0.28	3.33
4/08	A	Lancaster Cou Day	2-	6	-4	-6	+	0.28	2.27
4/11	A	Cocalico	5-	14	-9	-7	–	0.28	-2.44
4/15	A	Ephrata	5-	9	-4	-3		0.28	-1.48
4/22	A	Manheim Township	2-	15	-13	-14		0.28	0.58
4/25	A	Central Dauphin East	10-	6	4	8	–	0.28	-3.80
5/01	H	Lampeter-Strasburg	5-	18	-13	-11		-0.28	-1.90
5/06	A	Harrisburg Academy	11-	7	4	4		0.28	0.01
5/08	H	Hempfield	2-	13	-11	-14	+	-0.28	2.61
5/09	A	Penn Manor	1-	8	-7	-9		0.28	1.99
5/13	H	Lower Dauphin	5-	6	-1	-1		-0.28	-0.22
5/17	H	Lewisburg	5-	3	2	3		-0.28	-1.49
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/22	A	Manheim Township	2-	15	-0.58
5/01	H	Lampeter-Strasburg	5-	18	1.90
5/08	H	Hempfield	2-	13	-2.61
10-goal correction: -0.09

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	79.		Natl CCR Rank	1893
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	79.06		Natl Power Rank	1893
Natl SOS Rating	77.58		Natl SOS Rank	706
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.60		Natl Quality Win Rank	2460
W-L Pct Rating	0.21		W-L Pct Rank	2329
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	3-11		Ave Goal diff (all )	-4.6
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-10.7
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-5		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-10.4
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-9		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-7.9
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-2.0


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