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Nazareth HS Blue Eagles (4-15)

Region: PA PVLL-LV

State: PA

Coach: Kevin Fogerty

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/22	at Chestnut Hill Academy (4-17)	PA IAC	89.7		L	6-	9		0.000
3/27	DELAWARE VALLEY (0-18)	NY C Sec 9	58.6		W	12-	3		0.000
3/29	ROMAN CATHOLIC (11-10)	PA Cathol	90.3		L	4-	12		-0.075
4/01	EMMAUS (16-3)	PA PVLL-LV	97.0		L	4-	16		0.000
4/04	SAUCON VALLEY (8-10)	PA PVLL-LV	87.8		W	8-	4		0.275
4/05	STATE COLLEGE (7-10)	PA CSNLL	76.9		W	6-	1		0.000
4/10	PARKLAND (11-6)	PA PVLL-LV	94.1		L	2-	14		0.000
4/12	CONRAD WEISER (22-5)	PA Berks	86.0		L	8-	18		-0.300
4/15	at ArchBishop Carroll (9-13)	PA Cathol	88.9		L	8-	9		-0.100
4/17	at Wyoming Seminary (9-7)	PA Indep	90.0		L	2-	15		-0.050
4/22	SOUTHERN LEHIGH (11-5)	PA PVLL-LV	93.5		L	3-	15		0.000
4/24	at Archbishop Ryan (11-9)	PA Cathol	91.2		L	6-	13		-0.050
4/26	COUNCIL ROCK SOUTH (6-14)	PA SubCont	89.4		L	5-	15		-0.125
4/29	at Moravian Academy (11-7)	PA PVLL-LV	91.4		L	1-	17		0.000
4/30	at William Allen (5-11)	PA PVLL-LV	86.7		W	10-	9		0.275
5/02	at Owen J Roberts (15-5)	PA PAC-10	94.7		L	1-	20		0.000
5/06	ALLENTOWN CATH CENTRAL (9-6)	PA PVLL-LV	91.3		L	4-	14		-0.075
5/08	EASTON (14-5)	PA PVLL-LV	95.1		L	2-	10		0.000
5/13	at Parkland (11-6)	PA PVLL-LV	94.1		L	2-	19		0.000
			82.0						-0.23

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/22	A	Chestnut Hill Academy	6-	9	-3	-10	+++	1.27	7.27
3/27	H	Delaware Valley	12-	3	9	29	–––	-1.08		20.31
3/29	H	Roman Catholic	4-	12	-8	-7		-1.27	-1.37
4/01	H	Emmaus	4-	16	-12	-16	+	-1.27	3.58
4/04	H	Saucon Valley	8-	4	4	-1	++	-1.27	4.55
4/05	H	State College	6-	1	5	11	––	-0.77		-5.73
4/10	H	Parkland	2-	14	-12	-13		-1.27	0.52
4/12	H	Conrad Weiser	8-	18	-10	2	–––	-0.77		11.67
4/15	A	ArchBishop Carroll	8-	9	-1	-6	++	1.27	5.02
4/17	A	Wyoming Seminary	2-	15	-13	-8	––	1.27	-4.71
4/22	H	Southern Lehigh	3-	15	-12	-10		-1.27	-1.61
4/24	A	Archbishop Ryan	6-	13	-7	-8		1.27	1.34
4/26	H	Council Rock South	5-	15	-10	-5	––	-1.27	-4.60
4/29	A	Moravian Academy	1-	17	-16	-10	––	1.27	-5.71
4/30	A	William Allen	10-	9	1	-1	+	1.27	2.28
5/02	A	Owen J Roberts	1-	20	-19	-14	––	1.27	-5.37
5/06	H	Allentown Cath Central	4-	14	-10	-7	–	-1.27	-3.31
5/08	H	Easton	2-	10	-8	-12	++	-1.27	4.05
5/13	A	Parkland	2-	19	-17	-15		1.27	-1.95
									0.00	-37.71

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
4/01	H	Emmaus	4-	16	-3.58
4/10	H	Parkland	2-	14	-0.52
4/12	H	Conrad Weiser	8-	18	0.00
4/17	A	Wyoming Seminary	2-	15	3.00
4/22	H	Southern Lehigh	3-	15	2.00
4/26	H	Council Rock South	5-	15	0.00
4/29	A	Moravian Academy	1-	17	6.00
5/02	A	Owen J Roberts	1-	20	5.37
5/06	H	Allentown Cath Central	4-	14	0.00
5/13	A	Parkland	2-	19	1.95
10-goal correction: 0.75

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	87.		Natl CCR Rank	1133
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	86.85		Natl Power Rank	1133
Natl SOS Rating	70.58		Natl SOS Rank	1417
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.23		Natl Quality Win Rank	1883
W-L Pct Rating	0.21		W-L Pct Rank	2345
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	4-15		Ave Goal diff (all )	-7.3
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-0		Ave Goal diff (top 5)
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-0		Ave Goal diff (top 10)
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-1		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-12.0
Wins/Losses (last 3)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-11.7


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