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Notre Dame Academy Dragons (9-9)

Region: MD MILL

State: VA

Coach: Rob Horne

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/11	EPISCOPAL HS (7-12)	DC IAC	87.8		L	2-	5		-0.325
3/13	OSBOURN PARK (13-5)	VA Cedar	89.2		W	15-	2		0.200
3/16	SOUTHLAKE CARROLL (5-15)	TX 1 North	80.5		W	17-	6		0.000
3/29	at Gunston Day (7-8)	MD MILL	78.9		W	17-	7		0.025
4/01	at Sandy Spring Friends (6-4)	MD MILL	81.0		W	15-	3		0.050
4/05	at Bishop O'Connell (7-13)	DC WCAC	85.4		L	7-	10		-0.275
4/08	at St Anne's-Belfield (15-5)	VA 1 VIP	97.0		L	1-	10		0.000
4/10	OAKTON (13-8)	VA Concord	94.7		L	6-	11		-0.150
4/12	BENEDICTINE (7-10)	VA 2 Privte	78.4		W	10-	4		0.000
4/16	at The Heights (11-8)	MD MILL	87.6	10	W	11-	8		0.275
4/19	at Norfolk Academy (21-2)	VA 1 Tidewtr	98.2		L	5-	13		0.000
4/22	ST CHRISTOPHER'S (8-7)	VA 1 VIP	92.0		L	8-	9		-0.250
4/24	at Eleanor Roosevelt (3-8)	MD MILL	75.9		W	12-	4		0.000
4/26	at Calverton (11-5)	MD MILL	88.7	9	L	5-	6	ot	-0.250
4/29	at Collegiate School (15-6)	VA 1 VIP	97.1		L	8-	11		0.000
5/03	FLINT HILL (14-3)	DC MAC	91.8	5	L	4-	7		-0.325
5/06	GUNSTON DAY (7-8)	MD MILL	78.9		W	15-	2		0.000
5/10	vs. The Heights # (11-8)	MD MILL	87.6	10	W	11-	7		1.250
# Neutral site			87.7						0.23

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/11	H	Episcopal HS	2-	5	-3	3	–––	-1.59		-6.08
3/13	H	Osbourn Park	15-	2	13	2	+++	-1.78		11.13
3/16	H	Southlake Carroll	17-	6	11	11		-1.68		0.48
3/29	A	Gunston Day	17-	7	10	9		1.73	0.56
4/01	A	Sandy Spring Friends	15-	3	12	8	++	1.73	4.22
4/05	A	Bishop O'Connell	7-	10	-3	1	––	1.73	-4.20
4/08	A	St Anne's-Belfield	1-	10	-9	-10		2.23		0.97
4/10	H	Oakton	6-	11	-5	-4		-1.38		-0.95
4/12	H	Benedictine	10-	4	6	13	–––	-2.06		-6.93
4/16	A	The Heights	11-	8	3	-1	++	1.73	4.32
4/19	A	Norfolk Academy	5-	13	-8	-11	+	2.23		3.08
4/22	H	St Christopher's	8-	9	-1	0		-2.23		-0.56
4/24	A	Eleanor Roosevelt	12-	4	8	10	–	1.73	-2.07
4/26	A	Calverton	5-	6	-1	0		1.73	-0.71
4/29	A	Collegiate School	8-	11	-3	-10	+++	2.23		7.07
5/03	H	Flint Hill	4-	7	-3	3	––	-1.73	-5.81
5/06	H	Gunston Day	15-	2	13	13		-1.73	0.10
5/10	N	The Heights	11-	7	4	0	+	0.00	3.59
									0.00	8.23

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/13	H	Osbourn Park	15-	2	-3.00
3/16	H	Southlake Carroll	17-	6	-0.48
3/29	A	Gunston Day	17-	7	0.00
4/01	A	Sandy Spring Friends	15-	3	-2.00
5/06	H	Gunston Day	15-	2	-0.10
10-goal correction: -0.31

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	89.		Natl CCR Rank	797
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	89.30		Natl Power Rank	797
Natl SOS Rating	82.12		Natl SOS Rank	381
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.23		Natl Quality Win Rank	961
W-L Pct Rating	0.50		W-L Pct Rank	1325
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	9-9		Ave Goal diff (all )	2.4
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-1		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-3.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	2-2		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	0.8
Wins/Losses (top 20)	5-3		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	4.4
Wins/Losses (last 3)	2-1		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	4.7


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