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Broad Run Spartans (15-5)

Region: VA NW AAState: VACoach: Jen Melhuish

Team Page Links:  •  2009  •  2008  •  2007  •  2006  •  2005  •

DateOpponentConferencePRRankScore COR
3/15MONTICELLO, VA (2-8)VA NW AA68.5W18- 6 0.000  
3/27at Dominion (7-8)VA NW AA70.2W14- 6 0.100  
3/29at Western Albemarle (15-3)VA NW AA83.05L3-14 -0.075  
4/02STONE BRIDGE (14-2)VA Lbrty81.97W7- 6 0.250  
4/05at Bullis School (15-3)DC ISL A89.2L5-14 0.000  
4/07FREEDOM-SOUTH RIDING (0-11)VA NW AA63.4W16- 2 0.000  
4/12WESTFIELD, VA (12-6)VA Cncrd79.3W10- 9 0.200  
4/14at George Mason (7-7)VA NW AA68.6W13- 5 0.050  
4/17BRIAR WOODS (5-7)VA NW AA68.2W19- 6 0.000  
4/21at Loudoun County (8-4)VA NW AA72.8W12- 6 0.150  
4/24PARK VIEW (0-8)VA NW AA59.7W16- 1 0.000  
4/28at Heritage (7-7)VA NW AA69.6W15- 5 0.075  
5/01POTOMAC FALLS (10-4)VA NW AA73.6W9- 6 0.025  
5/03at Mercersburg Academy (9-5)PA Indep80.6L10-11 -0.200  
5/07FREEDOM-SOUTH RIDING (0-11)VA NW AA63.4W21- 2 0.000  
5/15vs. Dominion # (7-8)VA NW AA70.2W14- 6 0.025  
5/16vs. Potomac Falls # (10-4)VA NW AA73.6W15- 4 0.075  
5/19ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY (10-6)VA NW AA75.2W16- 4 0.100  
5/21at Western Albemarle (15-3)VA NW AA83.05L6-12 -0.075  
6/01at Chantilly (17-3)VA Cncrd85.92L8-15 -0.075  
# Neutral site 76.3     0.63  

Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
DateSiteOpponentScoreGoal Differential+/–Home Adv.Err-LErr-E
ActualPredicted
3/15HMonticello, VA18-612   12       -2.28       0.19
3/27ADominion14-68   6       2.28       1.71
3/29AWestern Albemarle3-14-11   -7       ––2.28       -4.17
4/02HStone Bridge7-61   0       -2.28       0.82
4/05ABullis School5-14-9   -11       +2.17       2.49
4/07HFreedom-South Riding16-214   17       –-2.28       -3.14
4/12HWestfield, VA10-91   2       -2.28       -0.50
4/14AGeorge Mason13-58   8       2.28       -0.16
4/17HBriar Woods19-613   12       -2.28       1.05
4/21ALoudoun County12-66   4       2.28       1.82
4/24HPark View16-115   22       –––-2.28       -7.38
4/28AHeritage15-510   7       +2.28       2.64
5/01HPotomac Falls9-63   9       ––-2.28       -5.86
5/03AMercersburg Academy10-11-1   -2       1.51       1.25
5/07HFreedom-South Riding21-219   17       -2.28       1.86
5/15NDominion14-68   9       0.00       -0.57
5/16NPotomac Falls15-411   7       ++0.00       4.42
5/19HRockbridge County16-412   6       +++-2.28       6.02
5/21AWestern Albemarle6-12-6   -7       2.28       0.83
6/01AChantilly8-15-7   -7       2.28       0.41
         0.003.74

Ten Goal Limit Correction
DateSiteOpponentScoreAdj.
3/15HMonticello, VA18-6-0.19
3/29AWestern Albemarle3-141.00
4/07HFreedom-South Riding16-23.14
4/17HBriar Woods19-6-1.05
4/24HPark View16-17.38
4/28AHeritage15-50.00
5/07HFreedom-South Riding21-2-1.86
5/16NPotomac Falls15-4-1.00
5/19HRockbridge County16-4-2.00
10-goal correction: 0.27

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating 80.   Natl CCR Rank 274
Natl Poll Vote n/a   Natl Poll Rank n/a
Natl Power Rating 79.91   Natl Power Rank 274
Natl SOS Rating 69.80   Natl SOS Rank 449
Natl Quality Win Rating 0.63   Natl Quality Win Rank 343
W-L Pct Rating 0.75   W-L Pct Rank 368
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all ) 15-5   Ave Goal diff (all ) 5.3
Wins/Losses (top 5) 0-3   Ave Goal diff (top 5) -8.0
Wins/Losses (top 10) 1-3   Ave Goal diff (top 10) -5.8
Wins/Losses (top 20) 3-3   Ave Goal diff (top 20) -1.7
Wins/Losses (last 3) 1-2   Ave Goal diff (last 3) -0.3



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