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Chapel Hill Tigers (13-8)

Region: NC E Cen

State: NC

Coach: Susan Crammer

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
2/28	at Middle Creek (5-9)	NC East	63.3		W	13-	3		0.150
3/04	PANTHER CREEK (3-12)	NC East	60.5			-
3/07	at Cardinal Gibbons, NC (7-7)	NC E Cen	66.6			-
3/11	APEX (19-3)	NC East	79.6	1	L	3-	18		0.000
3/13	CARRBORO (4-11)	NC E Cen	61.3		W	17-	6		0.050
3/14	at St. Mary's, NC (7-9)	NC E Cen	61.8		W	15-	5		0.100
3/17	at Southeast Guilford (1-14)	NC W Cen	55.6		W	11-	1		0.000
3/19	at East Chapel Hill (14-4)	NC E Cen	74.6	3	L	6-	15		-0.100
3/20	RIVERSIDE, NC (0-13)	NC E Cen	57.9		W	16-	6		0.000
3/27	at Ashley (8-7)	NC SE	65.8		W	13-	9		0.200
3/28	at Cape Fear Academy (8-8)	NC SE	66.9		W	13-	9		0.250
3/28	at New Hanover (1-10)	NC SE	58.6			-
3/29	at Laney (8-7)	NC SE	64.6		W	14-	4		0.100
4/07	CENTENNIAL, GA (10-8)	GA A4	71.8		L	12-	16		-0.200
4/08	at St. Mary's, NC (7-9)	NC E Cen	61.8		W	22-	12		0.100
4/09	CARDINAL GIBBONS, NC (7-7)	NC E Cen	66.6		W	18-	8		0.200
4/10	at Carrboro (4-11)	NC E Cen	61.3			-
4/15	at Panther Creek (3-12)	NC East	60.5		W	11-	1		0.000
4/18	at Green Hope (13-6)	NC East	71.3	4	L	12-	14		-0.175
4/19	HOGGARD (11-3)	NC SE	69.6	8	L	6-	13		-0.275
4/21	EAST CHAPEL HILL (14-4)	NC E Cen	74.6	3	L	6-	18		-0.100
4/23	WESTERN GUILFORD (12-5)	NC W Cen	68.6		W	16-	15	ot	0.300
4/24	at Wakefield, NC (12-5)	NC East	68.5		L	13-	18		-0.275
4/30	at Durham Academy (15-5)	NC E Cen	70.0	7	W	18-	16		0.300
5/08	at Apex (19-3)	NC East	79.6	1	L	9-	22		0.000
			66.1						0.63

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
2/28	A	Middle Creek	13-	3	10	4	++	0.39	5.85
3/11	H	Apex	3-	18	-15	-10	––	-0.39	-5.07
3/13	H	Carrboro	17-	6	11	8	+	-0.39	3.00
3/14	A	St. Mary's, NC	15-	5	10	6	++	0.39	4.19
3/17	A	Southeast Guilford	11-	1	10	17	–––	0.39	-7.13
3/19	A	East Chapel Hill	6-	15	-9	-6	–	0.39	-2.61
3/20	H	Riverside, NC	16-	6	10	14	–	-0.39	-3.61
3/27	A	Ashley	13-	9	4	2	+	0.39	2.38
3/28	A	Cape Fear Academy	13-	9	4	0	+	0.39	3.71
3/29	A	Laney	14-	4	10	6	+	0.39	3.94
4/07	H	Centennial, GA	12-	16	-4	-2	–	-1.04		-2.43
4/08	A	St. Mary's, NC	22-	12	10	6	++	0.39	4.19
4/09	H	Cardinal Gibbons, NC	18-	8	10	2	+++	-0.39	7.57
4/15	A	Panther Creek	11-	1	10	11		0.39	-1.47
4/18	A	Green Hope	12-	14	-2	-3		0.39	0.82
4/19	H	Hoggard	6-	13	-7	1	–––	-0.39	-7.72
4/21	H	East Chapel Hill	6-	18	-12	-6	–––	-0.39	-6.38
4/23	H	Western Guilford	16-	15	1	-2	+	-0.39	2.87
4/24	A	Wakefield, NC	13-	18	-5	1	––	0.39	-5.84
4/30	A	Durham Academy	18-	16	2	-2	+	0.39	3.61
5/08	A	Apex	9-	22	-13	-11	–	0.39	-2.30
									0.00	-2.43

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
2/28	A	Middle Creek	13-	3	0.00
3/11	H	Apex	3-	18	5.00
3/13	H	Carrboro	17-	6	-1.00
3/14	A	St. Mary's, NC	15-	5	0.00
3/17	A	Southeast Guilford	11-	1	7.13
3/20	H	Riverside, NC	16-	6	3.61
3/29	A	Laney	14-	4	0.00
4/08	A	St. Mary's, NC	22-	12	0.00
4/09	H	Cardinal Gibbons, NC	18-	8	0.00
4/15	A	Panther Creek	11-	1	1.47
4/21	H	East Chapel Hill	6-	18	2.00
5/08	A	Apex	9-	22	2.30
10-goal correction: 0.98

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	69.		Natl CCR Rank	1080
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	69.23		Natl Power Rank	1080
Natl SOS Rating	54.44		Natl SOS Rank	1579
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.63		Natl Quality Win Rank	338
W-L Pct Rating	0.62		W-L Pct Rank	699
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	13-8		Ave Goal diff (all )	1.7
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-5		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-10.2
Wins/Losses (top 10)	1-6		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-8.0
Wins/Losses (top 20)	5-7		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-3.5
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-5.3


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