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Lower Merion Aces (4-14)

Region: PA Centrl

State: PA

Coach: Erika Baylis

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
3/27	at St. Hubert Catholic (6-6)	PA Cath	76.4		W	12-	7		0.200
3/29	NOTRE DAME ACAD, PA (14-6)	PA IAC	85.4		L	3-	17		0.000
3/31	CARDINAL O'HARA (8-7)	PA Cath	77.2		L	4-	6		-0.275
4/01	at Shipley School (8-9)	PA Friend	77.3		W	12-	11	ot	0.300
4/03	MARPLE NEWTOWN (6-13)	PA Centrl	79.0		L	5-	11		-0.150
4/08	at Garnet Valley (4-14)	PA Indep	77.0		W	9-	8		0.325
4/10	UPPER DARBY (0-15)	PA Centrl	73.2		W	10-	3		0.075
4/12	MERION MERCY ACADEMY (13-7)	PA CAL	83.1		L	9-	14		-0.075
4/15	RIDLEY (13-8)	PA Centrl	86.6		L	3-	16		0.000
4/17	at Strath Haven (18-4)	PA Centrl	89.2	7	L	2-	20		0.000
4/22	HARRITON (12-8)	PA DelVal	81.2		L	4-	14		-0.200
4/24	at Radnor (23-0)	PA Centrl	93.8	1	L	1-	27		0.000
4/26	vs. Springside School # (6-11)	PA IAC	80.1		L	9-	10		-0.100
4/29	CONESTOGA (13-7)	PA Centrl	85.9		L	5-	15		0.000
5/01	at Haverford (8-11)	PA Centrl	81.7		L	10-	15		-0.050
5/06	at Penncrest (4-11)	PA Centrl	79.7		L	6-	15		-0.075
5/08	FRIENDS CENTRAL (5-6)	PA Friend	76.8		L	7-	11		-0.325
5/13	SPRINGFIELD (DELCO) (19-3)	PA Centrl	90.7	2	L	4-	16		0.000
# Neutral site			76.0						-0.35

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
3/27	A	St. Hubert Catholic	12-	7	5	2	+	1.65	3.44
3/29	H	Notre Dame Acad, PA	3-	17	-14	-10	–	-1.65	-3.96
3/31	H	Cardinal O'Hara	4-	6	-2	1	–	-1.65	-3.15
4/01	A	Shipley School	12-	11	1	-2	+	1.65	3.37
4/03	H	Marple Newtown	5-	11	-6	-4	–	-1.65	-2.31
4/08	A	Garnet Valley	9-	8	1	-3	++	1.65	4.02
4/10	H	Upper Darby	10-	3	7	7		-1.65	-0.13
4/12	H	Merion Mercy Academy	9-	14	-5	-7		-1.65	1.91
4/15	H	Ridley	3-	16	-13	-11		-1.65	-1.68
4/17	A	Strath Haven	2-	20	-18	-20		1.65	1.75
4/22	H	Harriton	4-	14	-10	-2	–––	-1.65	-7.57
4/24	A	Radnor	1-	27	-26	-26		1.65	0.38
4/26	N	Springside School	9-	10	-1	-6	++	0.00	4.99
4/29	H	Conestoga	5-	15	-10	-11		-1.65	0.55
5/01	A	Haverford	10-	15	-5	-8	+	1.65	3.49
5/06	A	Penncrest	6-	15	-9	-7		1.65	-1.67
5/08	H	Friends Central	7-	11	-4	3	–––	-1.65	-7.42
5/13	H	Springfield (DelCo)	4-	16	-12	-16	+	-1.65	3.99
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
3/29	H	Notre Dame Acad, PA	3-	17	4.00
4/15	H	Ridley	3-	16	1.68
4/17	A	Strath Haven	2-	20	-1.75
4/22	H	Harriton	4-	14	0.00
4/24	A	Radnor	1-	27	-0.38
4/29	H	Conestoga	5-	15	-0.55
5/13	H	Springfield (DelCo)	4-	16	-3.99
10-goal correction: -0.05

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	77.		Natl CCR Rank	472
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	76.72		Natl Power Rank	472
Natl SOS Rating	69.52		Natl SOS Rank	471
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.35		Natl Quality Win Rank	1697
W-L Pct Rating	0.22		W-L Pct Rank	1671
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	4-14		Ave Goal diff (all )	-6.7
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-19.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-18.7
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-6		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-15.5
Wins/Losses (last 3)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-8.3


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