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Middle Creek Mustangs (5-9)

Region: NC East

State: NC

Coach: Ashley Rupper

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
2/28	CHAPEL HILL (13-8)	NC E Cen	69.2	9	L	3-	13		-0.150
2/29	at Panther Creek (3-12)	NC East	60.5		W	11-	3		0.075
3/05	DURHAM ACADEMY (15-5)	NC E Cen	70.0	7	L	9-	16		-0.125
3/11	WAKEFIELD, NC (12-5)	NC East	68.5		L	9-	13		-0.175
3/13	CARDINAL GIBBONS, NC (7-7)	NC E Cen	66.6		W	12-	10		0.300
3/18	at Green Hope (13-6)	NC East	71.3	4	L	5-	15		-0.075
3/20	ATHENS DRIVE (3-11)	NC East	61.2		W	16-	6		0.150
3/25	at Broughton (14-3)	NC East	70.9	6	L	9-	16		-0.100
4/09	at Enloe (7-7)	NC East	65.5		L	8-	17		-0.175
4/11	at Apex (19-3)	NC East	79.6	1	L	1-	17		0.000
4/15	at Cary (0-10)	NC East	57.8		W	14-	3		0.050
4/19	GREEN HOPE (13-6)	NC East	71.3	4	L	6-	11		-0.075
4/24	at East Chapel Hill (14-4)	NC E Cen	74.6	3	L	1-	14		0.000
4/25	CARY (0-10)	NC East	57.8		W	17-	3		0.025
			67.2						-0.27

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
2/28	H	Chapel Hill	3-	13	-10	-4	––	-0.39	-5.85
2/29	A	Panther Creek	11-	3	8	7		0.39	1.07
3/05	H	Durham Academy	9-	16	-7	-5		-0.39	-1.63
3/11	H	Wakefield, NC	9-	13	-4	-3		-0.39	-1.07
3/13	H	Cardinal Gibbons, NC	12-	10	2	-2	++	-0.39	4.11
3/18	A	Green Hope	5-	15	-10	-7	–	0.39	-2.64
3/20	H	Athens Drive	16-	6	10	4	+++	-0.39	6.29
3/25	A	Broughton	9-	16	-7	-6		0.39	-0.96
4/09	A	Enloe	8-	17	-9	-3	––	0.39	-5.60
4/11	A	Apex	1-	17	-16	-15		0.39	-0.76
4/15	A	Cary	14-	3	11	8	+	0.39	2.65
4/19	H	Green Hope	6-	11	-5	-7		-0.39	1.59
4/24	A	East Chapel Hill	1-	14	-13	-11	–	0.39	-2.07
4/25	H	Cary	17-	3	14	9	++	-0.39	4.88
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
2/28	H	Chapel Hill	3-	13	0.00
3/18	A	Green Hope	5-	15	0.00
3/20	H	Athens Drive	16-	6	0.00
4/11	A	Apex	1-	17	0.76
4/15	A	Cary	14-	3	-1.00
4/24	A	East Chapel Hill	1-	14	2.07
4/25	H	Cary	17-	3	-4.00
10-goal correction: -0.16

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	63.		Natl CCR Rank	1574
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	63.34		Natl Power Rank	1574
Natl SOS Rating	55.98		Natl SOS Rank	1439
Natl Quality Win Rating	-0.27		Natl Quality Win Rank	1574
W-L Pct Rating	0.36		W-L Pct Rank	1383
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	5-9		Ave Goal diff (all )	-2.6
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-4		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-11.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-7		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-9.7
Wins/Losses (top 20)	1-9		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-7.9
Wins/Losses (last 3)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-1.3


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