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2009
2008
2007
2006
2005

Novato Hornets (4-9)

Region: CA MCAL

State: CA

Coach: P. Breckenridge

Team Page Links: • 2009 • 2008 • 2007 • 2006 • 2005 •

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Rank	Score				COR
2/20	MARIN CATHOLIC (13-9)	CA MCAL	73.5		L	3-	18		-0.025
3/01	OAK RIDGE (11-5)	CA Indep	70.1		L	6-	11		-0.150
3/05	at Berkeley (17-7)	CA BSAL	75.6		L	3-	15		0.000
3/11	BISHOP O'DOWD (3-13)	CA BSAL	64.6		W	10-	6		0.300
3/13	at Dublin, CA (5-13)	CA DFAL	65.4		L	4-	6		-0.175
3/18	at Clayton Valley (6-13)	CA BSAL	66.9		L	4-	16		-0.100
3/29	BELLA VISTA (10-8)	CA SJS	67.1		W	11-	9		0.300
4/01	at St. Francis, CA (16-0)	CA SJS	76.7	8	L	1-	11		0.000
4/04	at Tamalpais (0-8)	CA MCAL	61.5		W	8-	5		0.275
4/16	SIR FRANCIS DRAKE (0-6)	CA MCAL	51.7		W	23-	0		0.000
4/18	REDWOOD (12-7)	CA MCAL	75.8	10	L	2-	18		0.000
4/23	SONOMA ACADEMY (1-6)	CA MCAL	62.9			-
4/25	at University HS, SF (10-10)	CA MCAL	71.5		L	5-	18		-0.050
4/30	at San Marin (0-6)	CA MCAL	63.5			-
5/02	MARIN CATHOLIC (13-9)	CA MCAL	73.5		L	1-	20		-0.025
			68.6						0.35

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
2/20	H	Marin Catholic	3-	18	-15	-9	––	-1.04	-5.53
3/01	H	Oak Ridge	6-	11	-5	-4		-1.04	-0.83
3/05	A	Berkeley	3-	15	-12	-13		1.04	1.03
3/11	H	Bishop O'Dowd	10-	6	4	-2	+++	-1.04	6.02
3/13	A	Dublin, CA	4-	6	-2	-3		1.04	1.09
3/18	A	Clayton Valley	4-	16	-12	-6	–––	1.04	-6.42
3/29	H	Bella Vista	11-	9	2	-2	++	-1.04	4.04
4/01	A	St. Francis, CA	1-	11	-10	-13	+	1.04	2.97
4/04	A	Tamalpais	8-	5	3	-1	+	1.04	3.99
4/16	H	Sir Francis Drake	23-	0	23	12	+++	-1.04	11.35
4/18	H	Redwood	2-	18	-16	-12	–	-1.04	-3.54
4/25	A	University HS, SF	5-	18	-13	-8	––	1.04	-4.64
5/02	H	Marin Catholic	1-	20	-19	-9	–––	-1.04	-9.53
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
2/20	H	Marin Catholic	3-	18	5.00
3/05	A	Berkeley	3-	15	-1.03
3/18	A	Clayton Valley	4-	16	2.00
4/01	A	St. Francis, CA	1-	11	-2.97
4/16	H	Sir Francis Drake	23-	0	11.35
4/18	H	Redwood	2-	18	3.54
4/25	A	University HS, SF	5-	18	3.00
5/02	H	Marin Catholic	1-	20	9.00
10-goal correction: 0.55

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	64.		Natl CCR Rank	1504
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	64.23		Natl Power Rank	1504
Natl SOS Rating	57.79		Natl SOS Rank	1307
Natl Quality Win Rating	0.35		Natl Quality Win Rank	581
W-L Pct Rating	0.31		W-L Pct Rank	1469
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	4-9		Ave Goal diff (all )	-5.5
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-0		Ave Goal diff (top 5)
Wins/Losses (top 10)	0-2		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-13.0
Wins/Losses (top 20)	0-6		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	-14.2
Wins/Losses (last 3)	0-3		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-16.0

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