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Timber Creek Wolves (17-2)

Region: FL Dist 6

State: FL

Coach: Randy Polito

Date	Opponent	Conference	PR	Top 10	Score				QWF
2/06	HAGERTY (1-13)	FL Dist 3	61.6		W	23-	1		0.000
2/08	LAKE MARY (8-8)	FL Dist 4	71.6		W	14-	7		0.175
2/12	at Winter Park (12-6)	FL Dist 6	73.6		W	17-	10		0.275
2/15	OLYMPIA (15-3)	FL Dist 5	77.4	6	L	9-	16		-0.250
2/21	UNIVERSITY HS, ORLANDO (11-6)	FL Dist 6	69.8		W	15-	8		0.050
2/22	LYMAN (5-10)	FL Dist 4	65.5		W	19-	7		0.000
2/29	TAMPA CATHOLIC (9-3)	FL Dist 7	71.9		W	15-	12		0.100
3/03	at Boone (7-7)	FL Dist 6	65.3		W	22-	5		0.000
3/04	COLONIAL (2-10)	FL Dist 6	58.2		W	20-	4		0.000
3/07	FREEDOM, FL (7-8)	FL Dist 7	63.6		W	12-	1		0.000
3/13	at Lake Highland Prep (11-6)	FL Dist 6	73.8		W	16-	12		0.300
3/14	at Cypress Creek (9-8)	FL Dist 7	66.6		W	17-	6		0.025
3/19	at Apopka (2-13)	FL Dist 4	59.9		W	17-	4		0.000
3/21	EDGEWATER (1-13)	FL Dist 5	55.9		W	19-	1		0.000
3/24	at Oviedo (14-8)	FL Dist 3	75.7	9	W	13-	9		0.300
3/26	at West Orange (13-6)	FL Dist 5	71.7		W	15-	13		0.225
3/31	vs. University HS, Orlando # (11-6)	FL Dist 6	69.8		W	12-	9		0.100
4/01	vs. Winter Park # (12-6)	FL Dist 6	73.6		W	13-	11		0.225
4/08	at Lake Brantley (18-4)	FL Dist 4	80.7	3	L	2-	19		-0.100
# Neutral site			69.8						1.42

Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Goal Differential		+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
Predicted goals based on 'Reg In' PR for regional and 'Norm' PR for interregional games.
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Actual	Predicted	+/–	Home Adv.	Err-L	Err-E
2/06	H	Hagerty	23-	1	22	17	++	-1.78	5.16
2/08	H	Lake Mary	14-	7	7	3	++	-1.78	4.02
2/12	A	Winter Park	17-	10	7	-1	+++	1.78	7.57
2/15	H	Olympia	9-	16	-7	0	–––	-1.78	-6.81
2/21	H	University HS, Orlando	15-	8	7	8		-1.78	-1.17
2/22	H	Lyman	19-	7	12	14		-1.78	-1.79
2/29	H	Tampa Catholic	15-	12	3	6	–	-1.78	-2.95
3/03	A	Boone	22-	5	17	12	++	1.78	5.35
3/04	H	Colonial	20-	4	16	20	–	-1.78	-3.62
3/07	H	Freedom, FL	12-	1	11	16	––	-1.78	-5.07
3/13	A	Lake Highland Prep	16-	12	4	-2	+++	1.78	6.11
3/14	A	Cypress Creek	17-	6	11	9	+	1.78	2.36
3/19	A	Apopka	17-	4	13	14		1.78	-0.56
3/21	H	Edgewater	19-	1	18	21	–	-1.78	-2.58
3/24	A	Oviedo	13-	9	4	-2	+++	1.78	6.35
3/26	A	West Orange	15-	13	2	1		1.78	1.41
3/31	N	University HS, Orlando	12-	9	3	6	–	0.00	-3.39
4/01	N	Winter Park	13-	11	2	1		0.00	0.79
4/08	A	Lake Brantley	2-	19	-17	-6	–––	1.78	11.18
									0.00	0.00

Ten Goal Limit Correction
Date	Site	Opponent	Score		Adj.
2/06	H	Hagerty	23-	1	-5.16
2/22	H	Lyman	19-	7	1.79
3/03	A	Boone	22-	5	-5.35
3/04	H	Colonial	20-	4	3.62
3/07	H	Freedom, FL	12-	1	5.07
3/14	A	Cypress Creek	17-	6	-1.00
3/19	A	Apopka	17-	4	0.56
3/21	H	Edgewater	19-	1	2.58
4/08	A	Lake Brantley	2-	19	7.00
10-goal correction: 0.48

National Rating
Natl CCR Rating	77.		Natl CCR Rank	436
Natl Poll Vote	n/a		Natl Poll Rank	n/a
Natl Power Rating	77.80		Natl Power Rank	436
Natl SOS Rating	59.49		Natl SOS Rank	1179
Natl Quality Win Rating	1.42		Natl Quality Win Rank	65
W-L Pct Rating	0.89		W-L Pct Rank	87
Local Performance
Wins/Losses (all )	17-2		Ave Goal diff (all )	7.1
Wins/Losses (top 5)	0-1		Ave Goal diff (top 5)	-17.0
Wins/Losses (top 10)	1-2		Ave Goal diff (top 10)	-6.7
Wins/Losses (top 20)	9-2		Ave Goal diff (top 20)	1.4
Wins/Losses (last 3)	2-1		Ave Goal diff (last 3)	-4.0


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